[United States Presidential Election]2020 October Globe Elections UN Projection/Prediction/Forecast

_HEADLINE

According to Globe Elections UN’s October Projection in the United States of America, we can project that former vice president Joe Biden will be elected as the next president. This also means incumbent president Donald Trump will be defeated.

_NATIONWIDE PROJECTION

-Vote Share Projection

Joe Biden(DP / Lean-Left) : 52.53% (-0.35pp From September, +4.49pp From Last Election)

Donald Trump(GOP / Right-wing Big Tent) : 45.43% (+0.76pp From September, -0.50pp From Last Election)

Others(OTH / Mixed) : 2.04% (-0.41pp From September, -3.99pp From Last Election)

-Presidential Approval Projection <Donald Trump>

Approval45.53% (-0.06pp From September)

Disapproval54.47% (+0.06pp From September)

_SWING BASE STATEWIDE PROJECTION

-Electoral Vote Projection

Joe Biden(DP / Lean-Left) : 334 E.V.s (-16 From September, +107 From Last Election)

Donald Trump(GOP / Right-wing Big Tent) : 204 E.V.s (+16 From September, -100 From Last Election)

Others(OTH / Mixed) : 0 E.V.s (+0 From September, -7 From Last Election)

-Too Close To Call States

GA – Trump +0.31%p

NC – Biden +1.20%p

AZ – Biden +1.21%p

OH – Trump +3.45%p

FL – Biden +3.73%p

WI – Biden +4.11%p

PA – Biden +4.21%p

TX – Trump +4.35%p

MI – Biden +4.68%p

IA – Trump +5.00%p

-Other Key States

NH – Biden +5.29%p

MN – Biden +6.46%p

NV – Biden +7.42%p

ME – Biden +7.99%p

SC – Trump +9.82%p

CO – Biden +10.04%p

VA – Biden +10.43%p

AK – Trump +11.30%p

MO – Trump +14.49%p

KS – Trump +16.87%p

_POLL+SWING STATEWIDE PROJECTION

-Electoral Vote Projection

Joe Biden(DP / Lean-Left) : 350 E.V.s (-38 From September, +123 From Last Election)

Donald Trump(GOP / Right-wing Big Tent) : 187 E.V.s (+38 From September, -116 From Last Election)

Others(OTH / Mixed) : 0 E.V.s (+0 From September, -7 From Last Election)

-Too Close To Call States

OH – Trump +0.62%p

IA – Trump +1.57%p

GA – Biden +1.67%p

NC – Biden +3.00%p

NV – Biden +3.26%p

AZ – Biden +3.53%p

FL – Biden +3.81%p

TX – Trump +4.89%p

-Other Key States

WI – Biden +5.18%p

SC – Trump +5.32%p

MI – Biden +6.59%p

PA – Biden +6.91%p

KS – Trump +8.76%p

MN – Biden +8.84%p

CO – Biden +10.04%p

NH – Biden +10.09%p

VA – Biden +10.43%p

AK – Trump +11.30%p

ME – Biden +14.17%p

MO – Trump +14.49%p

FULL DETAILS/RESULTS :

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1ag3VShXV6-5dldEBSZTe3jcsObpYRPR8QVNsr0hLw4c/

Globe Elections Projection/Prediction/Forecast Dashboard :

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1kr8ZSdkUo0b5gQzPURfHQ0cLqcZpVmSWcnDUOK14mOY/

[2020 Virtual Election Night in USA]All Calculation Data

-Main Calculation Data (2020)

***Final Vote Totals Based On Our Progress Forecast (As of 09/24) , Partial Vote Totals Based On 2016 Election Results, All Vote Shares Based On Globe Elections UN Forecast (September)+2016 Election Situation.

-Past Calculation Data (2016)

https://docs.google.com/document/d/1cg3_fJIq_MU1IZMgOUu9Bv3AtaEpAf51ce__MgTEStM/

***Partial Results Based On 2016 CNN, MSNBC, PBS Election Coverage.

[South Korea General Election]2020 September Globe Elections UN Projection/Prediction

_Video

_Headline

According to Globe Elections UN’s September Projection in South Korea, we are projecting it is too close to call between DPK and UFP but the Democrats are slightly leading UFP at this stage. In the other hands, the Justice Party, People’s Party, Open Democrats would increase the seat numbers significantly compared to the last election. We are also putting the Progressives(Jinbo Party) up to a single seat.

_Poll+Error Projection

-Seat Projection

Democratic Party(DPK / Lean-Left) : 140 Seats (-7 From August, -40 From Last Election)

United Future Party(UFP / Center-Right) : 125 Seats (+5 From August, +22 From Last Election)

Justice Party(JPK / Center-Left) : 16 Seats (+1 From August +10 From Last Election)

People’s Party(PP / Lean-Right) : 10 Seats (+1 From August, +7 From Last Election)

Open Democratic Party(ODP / Lean-Left) : 9 Seats (+0 From August, +6 From Last Election)

Progressive/Jinbo Party(JBP / Left-wing) : 0 Seats (+0 From August, +0 From Last Election)

Others(OTH / Mixed) : 0 Seats (+0 From August, -5 From Last Election)

-Constituency Vote Share Projection

Democratic Party(DPK / Lean-Left) : 47.22% (-1.00pp From August, -1.69pp From Last Election)

United Future Party(UFP / Center-Right) : 45.44% (+0.45pp From August, +3.53pp From Last Election)

Justice Party(JPK / Center-Left) : 1.93% (+0.29pp From August, +0.22pp From Last Election)

Others(OTH / Mixed) : 5.41% (+0.41pp From August, -1.51pp From Last Election)

-Proportional Vote Share Projection

United Future Party(UFP / Center-Right) : 38.00% (-0.35pp From August, +4.16pp From Last Election)

Democratic Party(DPK / Lean-Left) : 32.33% (-1.32pp From August, -2.86pp From Last Election)

Justice Party(JPK / Center-Left) : 11.15% (+0.61pp From August, +1.48pp From Last Election)

People’s Party(PP / Lean-Right) : 7.55% (+0.87pp From August, +0.75pp From Last Election)

Open Democratic Party(ODP / Lean-Left) : 6.64% (-0.89pp From August, +1.20pp From Last Election)

Others(OTH / Mixed) : 4.33% (+1.08pp From August, -6.58pp From Last Election)

-Presidential Approval

Approval48.31% (+1.14pp From August, -7.89pp From Last Election)

Disapproval51.69% (-1.14pp From August, +7.89pp From Last Election)

_Poll Only Projection

-Proportional Vote Share Projection

Democratic Party(DPK / Lean-Left) : 47.58%

United Future Party(UFP / Center-Right) : 34.38%

Justice Party(JPK / Center-Left) : 5.35%

Open Democratic Party(ODP / Lean-Left) : 5.20%

People’s Party(PP / Lean-Right) : 4.49%

Others(OTH / Mixed) : 3.00%

-Presidential Approval

Approval50.38%

Disapproval49.62% 

FULL DETAILS/RESULTS : https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1KQzI6Uh8rQJ5kUTsM8K_FxTJG2iWSydDK2qQiZeqNiY/

List of Nations For Working On Election Projections/Predictions : https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1kr8ZSdkUo0b5gQzPURfHQ0cLqcZpVmSWcnDUOK14mOY/

[Poland General Election]2020 August Globe Elections UN Projection/Prediction

_Video

_Headline

According to Globe Elections UN’s August Projection in Poland, the United Rights will be remaining as the largest party in the next Sejm, but with no majority. The nearest contender, Civic Coalition is currently up slightly compared to the last election. In the other hand Conferderations are now up to third, and The Left, Polish Coalition follows on.

_Poll+Error Projection(Full)

-Seat Projection

United Right(ZP / Right-wing) : 188 Seats (-1 From July, -47 From Last Election)

Civic Coalition(KO / Center Big Tent) : 137 Seats (+7 From July, +3 From Last Election)

Confederation(KWiN / Far-Right) : 52 Seats (+1 From July, +41 From Last Election)

The Left(KL / Left-wing) : 41 Seats (-4 From July, -8 From Last Election)

Polish Coalition(KP / Lean-Right) : 41 Seats (-3 From July, +11 From Last Election)

Others(OTH / Mixed) : 1 Seats (+0 From July, +0 From Last Election)

-Vote Share Projection

United Right(ZP / Right-wing) : 38.84% (-0.57pp From July, -4.75pp From Last Election)

Civic Coalition(KO / Center Big Tent) : 29.68% (+1.36pp From July, +2.26pp From Last Election)

Confederation(KWiN / Far-Right) : 11.22% (+0.03pp From July, +4.41pp From Last Election)

The Left(KL / Left-wing) : 8.80% (-1.05pp From July, -3.76pp From Last Election)

Polish Coalition(KP / Lean-Right) : 8.49% (-0.69pp From July, -0.06pp From Last Election)

Others(OTH / Mixed) : 2.96% (+0.91pp From July, +1.86pp From Last Election)

_Poll Only Projection(V.S.)

-Vote Share Projection

United Right(ZP / Right-wing) : 38.84%

Civic Coalition(KO / Center Big Tent) : 29.68%

The Left(KL / Left-wing) : 9.74%

Confederation(KWiN / Far-Right) : 9.02%

Polish Coalition(KP / Lean-Right) : 6.41%

Others(OTH / Mixed) : 1.58%

FULL DETAILS/RESULTS : https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1ZRib80d4xXf-2-saEjdF6ps_ZXJ3zb4giW-Hg0774kA/

List of Nations For Working On Election Projections/Predictions : https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1kr8ZSdkUo0b5gQzPURfHQ0cLqcZpVmSWcnDUOK14mOY/

[United States Presidential Election]2020 August Globe Elections UN Projection/Prediction

_Video

_Headline

According to Globe Elections UN’s August Projection in the United States(America), we are projecting that Joe Biden will be elected as the next president. This also means incumbent Donald Trump will be defeated.

-Poll Only Projection(Nationwide)

-Vote Share Projection

Joe Biden(DP / Lean-Left) : 52.81% (-1.45pp From July, +4.63pp From Last Election)

Donald Trump(GOP / Right-wing Big Tent) : 44.10% (-0.53pp From July, -1.98pp From Last Election)

Others(OTH / Mixed) : 3.09% (+1.99pp From July, -2.64pp From Last Election)

-Presidential Approval Projection <Donald Trump>

Approval43.54% (+1.50pp From July)

Disapproval56.46% (-1.50pp From July)

_Swing Only Projection(Statewide)

-Electoral Vote Projection

Joe Biden(DP / Lean-Left) : 350 E.V.s (+1 From July, +123 From Last Election)

Donald Trump(GOP / Right-wing Big Tent) : 188 E.V.s (-1 From July, -116 From Last Election)

Others(OTH / Mixed) : 0 E.V.s (+0 From July, -7 From Last Election)

_Poll+Swing Projection(Statewide)

-Electoral Vote Projection

Joe Biden(DP / Lean-Left) : 388 E.V.s (+50 From July, +161 From Last Election)

Donald Trump(GOP / Right-wing Big Tent) : 150 E.V.s (-50 From July, -154 From Last Election)

Others(OTH / Mixed) : 0 E.V.s (+0 From July, -7 From Last Election)

FULL DETAILS/RESULTS : https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1ShbF3NyEsFbA8U4DavKGbDxkfPgVxvZ4rr26jMYx6ms/

List of Nations For Working On Election Projections/Predictions : https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1kr8ZSdkUo0b5gQzPURfHQ0cLqcZpVmSWcnDUOK14mOY/