[United Kingdom General Election]2020 August Globe Elections UN Projection/Prediction

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According to Globe Elections UN’s August Projection in the United Kingdom(UK), we are projecting that the Conservatives will remain as the largest party in the next parliament. In the most likeliest scenario, they’ll have a majority of 18 seats, meaning that the current PM Boris Johnson will possibly be re-elected. But the reason that we’re putting the Tories just simply as the largest party is they could still not have a majority.

_Poll+Error Projection(Full)

-Seat Projection

Conservative Party(CON / Center-Right) : 334 Seats (-7 From July, -31 From Last Election)

Labour Party(LAB / Center-Left) : 229 Seats (+7 From July, +26 From Last Election)

Scottish National Party(SNP / Center-Left) : 58 Seats (+0 From July, +10 From Last Election)

Liberal Democrats(LD / Lean-Left) : 6 Seats (+0 From July, -5 From Last Election)

Plaid Cymru / The Party of Wales(PC / Center-Left) : 4 Seats (+0 From July, +0 From Last Election)

Green Party(GRN / Left-wing) : 1 Seats (+0 From July, +0 From Last Election)

Others(OTH / Mixed) : 18 Seats (+0 From July, +0 From Last Election)

-Vote Share Projection

Conservative Party(CON / Center-Right) : 41.73% (-1.15pp From July, -1.90pp From Last Election)

Labour Party(LAB / Center-Left) : 35.56% (+0.63pp From July, +3.40pp From Last Election)

Liberal Democrats(LD / Lean-Left) : 6.20% (-0.60pp From July, -5.35pp From Last Election)

Scottish National Party(SNP / Center-Left) : 6.06% (+0.73pp From July, +2.18pp From Last Election)

Green Party(GRN / Left-wing) : 3.91% (-0.19pp From July, +1.21pp From Last Election)

UK Independence Party(UKIP / Far-Right) : 1.53% (+0.90pp From July, +1.46pp From Last Election)

Plaid Cymru / The Party of Wales(PC / Center-Left) : 0.45% (-0.24pp From July, -0.03pp From Last Election)

Others(OTH / Mixed) : 4.56% (-0.08pp From July, -0.97pp From Last Election)

_Poll Only Projection

-Vote Share Projection

Conservative Party(CON / Center-Right) : 41.73%

Labour Party(LAB / Center-Left) : 38.35%

Liberal Democrats(LD / Lean-Left) : 6.54%

Scottish National Party(SNP / Center-Left) : 4.93%

Green Party(GRN / Left-wing) : 4.06%

UK Independence Party(UKIP / Far-Right) : 1.56%

Plaid Cymru / Party of Wales(PC / Center-Left) : 0.46%Election)

Others(OTH / Mixed) : 2.37%

FULL DETAILS/RESULTS : https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1cPwBykQjWMhvWH_IXlUz_GjFJe2_XD8UYZw-WQyVSHw/

List of Nations For Working On Election Projections/Predictions : https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1kr8ZSdkUo0b5gQzPURfHQ0cLqcZpVmSWcnDUOK14mOY/

[Germany Federal Election]2020 August Globe Elections UN Projection/Prediction

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According to Globe Elections UN’s August Projection in Germany, we are calling that CDU/CSU will be remaining as the largest party. In the other hand, Alliance 90/The Greens are expected to make a push to the second place, the Social Democrats down to third. Alternative for Germany, The Left, Free Democrats will each lose around 20 seats compared to the last election.

_Poll+Error Projection(Full)

-Seat Projection (*Only Including Leveling Seats, No Overhang Seats Included.)

Christian Democratic/Social Union(CDU/CSL / Center-Right) : 218 Seats (+0 From July, -28 From Last Election)

Alliance 90/The Greens(B90/DG / Center-Left) : 134 Seats (+3 From July, +67 From Last Election)

Social Democratic Party(SPD / Center-Left) : 84 Seats (-5 From July, -69 From Last Election)

Alternative For Germany(AfD / Far-Right) : 74 Seats (-1 From July, -20 From Last Election)

The Left(DL / Left-wing) : 47 Seats (+0 From July, -22 From Last Election)

Free Democratic Party(FDP / Lean-Right) : 45 Seats (-35 From July, +3 From Last Election)

Others(OTH / Mixed) : 0 Seats (+0 From July, +0 From Last Election)

-Constituency Vote Share Projection

Christian Democratic/Social Union(CDU/CSL / Center-Right) : 39.18% (+0.04pp From July, +1.92pp From Last Election)

Alliance 90/The Greens(B90/DG / Center-Left) : 19.04% (+0.30pp From July, +11.00pp From Last Election)

Social Democratic Party(SPD / Center-Left) : 15.92% (-1.03pp From July, -8.72pp From Last Election)

Alternative For Germany(AfD / Far-Right) : 10.39% (-0.21pp From July, -1.07pp From Last Election)

The Left(DL / Left-wing) : 6.61% (+0.00pp From July, -1.94pp From Last Election)

Free Democratic Party(FDP / Lean-Right) : 4.66% (+0.31pp From July, -2.34pp From Last Election)

Others(OTH / Mixed) : 4.20% (+0.59pp From July, +1.13pp From Last Election)

-Proportional Vote Share Projection

Christian Democratic/Social Union(CDU/CSL / Center-Right) : 34.05% (-0.20pp From July, +1.12pp From Last Election)

Alliance 90/The Greens(B90/DG / Center-Left) : 20.88% (+0.18pp From July, +11.94pp From Last Election)

Social Democratic Party(SPD / Center-Left) : 13.03% (-0.94pp From July, -7.48pp From Last Election)

Alternative For Germany(AfD / Far-Right) : 11.26% (-0.31pp From July, -1.38pp From Last Election)

Free Democratic Party(FDP / Lean-Right) : 7.03% (+0.42pp From July, -3.72pp From Last Election)

The Left(DL / Left-wing) : 7.02% (-0.05pp From July, -2.22pp From Last Election)

Others(OTH / Mixed) : 6.73% (+0.90pp From July, +1.73pp From Last Election)

-Poll Only Projection(Prop.)

-Proportional Vote Share Projection

Christian Democratic/Social Union(CDU/CSL / Center-Right) : 37.55% 

Alliance 90/The Greens(B90/DG / Center-Left) : 18.10% 

Social Democratic Party(SPD / Center-Left) : 14.30% 

Alternative For Germany(AfD / Far-Right) : 9.75%

The Left(DL / Left-wing) : 7.70%

Free Democratic Party(FDP / Lean-Right) : 6.12%

Others(OTH / Mixed) : 6.48%

_State-By-State Projection(Poll+Error/Swing Based)

FULL DETAILS/RESULTS : https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1nrrNGsgTlDxIq4pHJ9o-CvbznH9sNFVrUHqZSZ1kJn8/

List of Nations For Working On Election Projections/Predictions : https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1kr8ZSdkUo0b5gQzPURfHQ0cLqcZpVmSWcnDUOK14mOY/

[Italy General Election]2020 August Globe Elections UN Projection/Prediction

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According to Globe Elections UN’s August Projection in Italy, we are calling that it is too early to call for the control of the chamber of deputies. However, we are still putting opposition Center-Right Coalition narrowly over the governing Center Left Coalition+Five Star Movement by 4.63%p.

_Poll+Error Projection

-By Government/Opposition

Opposition : 50.71% (-0.68pp From July, +13.71pp From Last Election)

Government : 46.08% (+1.30pp From July, -12.42pp From Last Election)

Netural : 3.21% (-0.62pp From July, -1.29pp From Last Election)

-By Coalition

Center-Right Coalition(CDX) : 50.71% (-0.68pp From July, +13.71pp From Last Election)

Center-Left Coalition(CSX) : 24.98% (+0.18pp From July, +2.55pp From Last Election)

Five Star Movement(M5S) : 19.11% (+0.86pp From July, -13.57pp From Last Election)

Others(OTH / Mixed – OTH) : 3.21% (-0.62pp From July, -1.29pp From Last Election)

The Left(LS) : 1.99% (+0.26pp From July, -1.40pp From Last Election)

-By Party

League(LN / Far-Right – CDX) : 29.72% (-2.22pp From July, +12.37pp From Last Election)

Five Star Movement(M5S / Big Tent – M5S) : 19.11% (+0.86pp From July, -13.57pp From Last Election)

Democratic Party(PD / Center-Left – CSX) : 16.45% (-0.03pp From July, -2.31pp From Last Election)

Brother of Italy(FdI / Right-wing – CDX) : 14.34% (+0.95pp From July, +9.99pp From Last Election)

Foward Italy(FI / Center-Right – CDX) : 6.37% (+0.76pp From July, -7.63pp From Last Election)

Action(A / Lean-Left – CSX) : 2.61% (+0.08pp From July NEW PARTY)

Italy Alive(IV / Lean-Left – CSX) : 2.57% (-0.65pp From July, NEW PARTY)

The Left(LS / Left-wing – LS) : 1.99% (+0.26pp From July, -1.40pp From Last Election)

More Europe(+E / Lean-Left – CSX) : 1.97% (+0.47pp From July, -0.59pp From Last Election)

Green Europe(EV / Left-wing – CSX) : 1.38% (+0.31pp From July, +0.80pp From Last Election)

Let’s Change!(C! / Center-Right – CDX) : 0.29% (-0.16pp From July, NEW PARTY)

Others(OTH / Mixed – OTH) : 3.21% (-0.62pp From July, -1.29pp From Last Election)

_Poll Only Projection

-By Government/Opposition

Government : 49.21%

Opposition : 47.76%

Netural : 3.03%

-By Coalition

Center-Right Coalition(CDX) : 47.76%

Center-Left Coalition(CSX) : 29.45%

Five Star Movement(M5S) : 16.80%

The Left(LS) : 3.26%

Others(OTH) : 3.03%

-By Party

League(LN / Far-Right – CDX) : 24.38%

Democratic Party(PD / Center-Left – CSX) : 20.32%

Five Star Movement(M5S / Big Tent – M5S) : 16.50%

Brother of Italy(FdI / Right-wing – CDX) : 15.63%

Foward Italy(FI / Center-Right – CDX) : 7.45%

The Left(LS / Left-wing – LS) : 3.26%

Action(A / Lean-Left – CSX) : 2.66%

Italy Alive(IV / Lean-Left – CSX) : 2.61%

More Europe(+E / Lean-Left – CSX) : 2.00%

Green Europe(EV / Left-wing – CSX) : 1.86%

Let’s Change!(C! / Center-Right – CDX) : 0.30%

Others(OTH / Mixed – OTH) : 3.03%

FULL DETAILS/RESULTS : https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1s3qfiM5NzZ6MLP-fkF2Nya5olRf3w1T0tNASdcsxOIQ/

List of Nations For Working On Election Projections/Predictions : https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1kr8ZSdkUo0b5gQzPURfHQ0cLqcZpVmSWcnDUOK14mOY/

[2020 Poland Presidential Election]2nd Round Globe Elections UN Final Projection/Prediction

-National Projection

Globe Elections United Network is officially projecting that it is too close to call between Andrzej Duda and Rafal Trzaskowski on the 2nd round of Poland presidential election. However, Duda is sill slightly ahead of Trzaskowski by 0.10%p.

-Final(Poll-Base) Projection/Prediction

Andrzej Duda(ZP/United Right – Right-wing) : 50.05% (Incumbent)

Rafal Trzaskowski(KO/Civic Coalition – Center Big Tent) : 49.95%

According to this Final Projection/Prediction, Warsaw Mayor Trzaskowski and President Duda will win 9(8 Safe, 1 Lean), 7(5 Safe, 2 Lean) voivodeships each.

For more detailed information, please visit the following Spreadsheet.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1u6dDh-GtiLeFnfK9Kbb_cZvyXTP9iN3FdOQUVJVDNdc/

-Voivodeship-by-Voivodeship Projection

[2020 Poland Presidential Election]2nd Round R1-Base Projection/Prediction

-National Projection

Globe Elections United Network is projecting that Andrzej Duda is narrowly leading over Rafal Trzaskowski on the 2nd round of voting according to the 1st round results. Duda is expected to gain 50.80% of the valid votes, Trzaskowski just behind by 1.60%p with 49.20%.

According to the R1-Base Projection, Warsaw Mayor Rafal Trzaskowski is expected to win 10 out of 16 Voivodeships in Poland. The remaining 6 will be won by President Duda.

For more detailed information, please visit the following Spreadsheet.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1u6dDh-GtiLeFnfK9Kbb_cZvyXTP9iN3FdOQUVJVDNdc/

-Voivodeship-By-Voivodeship Projection

[2020 Poland Presidential Election]1st Round Globe Elections UN Final Projection/Prediction

Globe Elections United Network is officially projecting that Andrzej Duda and Rafal Trzaskowski will be facing in july run-off on the Poland presidential election. Including these two candidates, the main candidates of this election are projected to be getting the following vote share.

-Official(Polls+Error Cover) Final Projection/Prediction

Andrzej Duda(ZP/United Right – Right-wing) : 48.18% (Incumbent)

Rafal Trzaskowski(KO/Civic Coalition – Center Big Tent) : 24.06%

Szymon Hołownia(IND/Independent – Center) : 10.75%

Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz(KP/Polish Coalition – Lean-Right) : 6.69%

Krzysztof Bosak(KWiN/Confederation Freedom and Independence – Far-Right) : 4.81%

Robert Biedroń(LEWICA/The Left – Left-wing) : 2.44%

Other Candidates(OTH/Other Parties – Mixed) : 3.08%

According to this Final Projection/Prediction, President Duda is expected to win 13 out of 16 Voivodeships in Poland. The remaining 3 will be won by Warsaw Mayor Rafal Trzaskowski.

Additionally looking at the Polls-only Projection/Prediction, the candidates finished as follows.

-Polls-only Final Projection/Prediction

Andrzej Duda(ZP/United Right – Right-wing) : 43.09% (Incumbent)

Rafal Trzaskowski(KO/Civic Coalition – Center Big Tent) : 28.89%

Szymon Hołownia(IND/Independent – Center) : 11.72%

Krzysztof Bosak(KWiN/Confederation Freedom and Independence – Far-Right) : 6.76%

Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz(KP/Polish Coalition – Lean-Right) : 5.15%

Robert Biedroń(LEWICA/The Left – Left-wing) : 3.67%

Other Candidates(OTH/Other Parties – Mixed) : 0.71%

According to polls-only Final Projection/Prediction, President Duda is expected to win 12 out of 16 Voivodeships in Poland. The remaining 4 will be won by Warsaw Mayor Rafal Trzaskowski.

For more detailed information, please visit the following Spreadsheet.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/13rs5BZW0NSRi2MAO9PPUh_q9RPXFACsUY93d2wl-MuM/

[2019 UK General Election]GEUN/GEHSC Final Projection

[Headline]Conservatives 346, Labour 228, SNP 41, Lib Dems 14, Greens 1, Brexit 0

According to GEUN/GEHSC Final Projection, Boris Johnson’s Conservatives projected to be on 346 seats – gaining 28. This means they are gaining the Overall Majority by 20 seats in the next House of Commons. In the other hand, Jeremy Corbyn’s Labour Party is projected on 228 seats – which is short of almost a hundred seats from the winning line and exactly same with 2015.

And the SNP – Scottish Nationals, led by Nicola Sturgeon will have 41 seats, up 6. We are also saying according to our data, that Jo Swinson’s the Liberal Democrats and Jonathan Bartley & Sian Berry’s the Greens are at 14, 1 each. Finally, Nigel Farage’s Brexit Party is expected to fail to win any seats.

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[Seat Projection] Conservatives 346 S, Labour 228 S, Scottish Nationals 41 S, Lib Dems 14 S, Plaid Cymru 2 S, Greens 1 S, Brexits 0 S, UK Independence 0 S, Change Group 0 S

Conservatives : 346 Seats (Up 28 Seats From Election2017, Down 22 Seats From November)

Labour : 228 Seats (Down 34 Seats From Election2017, Up 25 Seats From November)

Scot Nationals : 41 Seats (Up 6 Seats From Election2017, Up 0 Seats From November)

Lib Dems : 14 Seats (Up 2 Seats From Election2017, Down 3 Seats From November)

Plaid Cyrmu : 2 Seats (Down 2 Seats From Election2017, Up 0 Seats From November)

Greens : 1 Seats (Up 0 Seats From Election2017, Up 0 Seats From November)

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[Vote Share Projection] Conservatives 42.9%, Labour 33.9%, Lib Dems 12.3%, Scottish Nationals 3.2%, Brexits 3.0%, Greens 2.9%

Conservatives : 42.91% (Down 0.57%p From Election2017, Up 1.84%p From November)

Labour : 33.88% (Down 6.11%p From Election2017, Up 4.15%p From November)

Lib Dems : 12.26% (Up 4.90%p From Election2017, Down 2.66%p From November)

Scot Nationals : 3.21% (Up 0.17%p From Election2017, Down 0.43%p From November)

Brexits : 3.04% (Up 3.04%p From Election2017, Down 2.84%p From November)

Greens : 2.87% (Up 1.24%p From Election2017, Down 0.23%p From November)

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  For more information, click the follwing link :

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1PmNj7fn0g-6Fi6mrwmFD9CzTFlUlv9_4TH3Y2l3rNOU/