[2020 Poland Presidential Election]1st Round Final Full Results & Projection/Prediction Analysis

As the official results for the 1st Round Of 2020 Poland Presidential Election are in, Andrzej Duda and Rafal Trzaskowski will be facing off in the run-off – which will be held on July 12th. Including these two candidates, the main candidates for this election held the following support.

-Official Results(100.00% Counted)

Andrzej Duda(ZP/United Right – Right-wing) : 8,450,513 Votes / 48.18% (Incumbent)

Rafal Trzaskowski(KO/Civic Coalition – Center Big Tent) : 5,917,340 Votes / 30.46%

Szymon Hołownia(IND/Independent – Center) : 2,693,397 Votes / 13.87%

Krzysztof Bosak(KWiN/Confederation Freedom and Independence – Far-Right) : 1,317,380 Votes / 6.78%

Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz(KP/Polish Coalition – Lean-Right) : 459,365 Votes / 2.37%

Robert Biedroń(LEWICA/The Left – Left-wing) : 432,129 Votes / 2.23%

Other Candidates(OTH/Other Parties – Mixed) : 155,335 Votes / 0.80%

The turnout for this election was 64.51%, which is 15.55%p higher than the last election in 2015. Also, this was the second-highest turnout ever in any Poland Elections. (After 1995 Poland Presidential Election) Detailly, 19,483,760 poles out of 30,204,792 registered voters turned out to vote.

President Duda won 13 out of 16 Voivodeships in Poland, and the remaining 3 has been won by Warsaw Mayor Rafal Trzaskowski. (Exactly Same With How We Projected/Predicted!)

And here is the final analysis of all projections/predictions/forecasts made for this election.

-AnalysisAndrzej DudaRafal TrzaskowskiSzymon HołowniaKrzysztof BosakWładysław Kosiniak
-Kamysz
Robert BiedrońAVERAGE
(OTH Also Included)
ZP / United RightKO /
Civic Coalition
BEZ / IndependentKWiN / Confederation
Freedom and
Independence
KP / Polish CoaltionLEWICA / The Left
Right-wingCenter Big TentCenterFar-RightLean-RightLeft-wing
Results43.50%30.46%13.87%6.78%2.36%2.22%
Final Projection
(Polls+Error Cover)
48.18%24.06%10.75%4.81%6.69%2.44%
“Error”4.68%-6.41%-3.12%-1.97%4.32%0.21%±3.28%
Start Projection
(Polls Only)
43.09%28.89%11.72%6.76%5.15%3.67%
“Error”-0.41%-1.57%-2.15%-0.02%2.79%1.45%±1.21%
StanPolityki(SP) Forecast41.14%30.49%12.96%7.31%3.57%3.61%
“Error”-2.36%0.03%-0.91%0.53%1.21%1.39%±0.94%
Ewybory Projection40.80%27.90%12.20%6.80%4.20%3.70%
“Error”-2.70%-2.56%-1.67%0.02%1.84%1.48%±1.99%
Ipsos Exit Poll41.80%30.40%13.30%7.40%2.60%2.90%
“Error”-1.70%-0.06%-0.57%0.62%0.24%0.68%±0.67%

#Conclusion : Don’t Error Cover On Presidential Elections, Only Use Polling Data From Reliable Sources.

Full Analysis And Final Projection/Prediction Can Be Found Below.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/13rs5BZW0NSRi2MAO9PPUh_q9RPXFACsUY93d2wl-MuM/

[2019 UK General Election]GEUN/GEHSC Final Projection

[Headline]Conservatives 346, Labour 228, SNP 41, Lib Dems 14, Greens 1, Brexit 0

According to GEUN/GEHSC Final Projection, Boris Johnson’s Conservatives projected to be on 346 seats – gaining 28. This means they are gaining the Overall Majority by 20 seats in the next House of Commons. In the other hand, Jeremy Corbyn’s Labour Party is projected on 228 seats – which is short of almost a hundred seats from the winning line and exactly same with 2015.

And the SNP – Scottish Nationals, led by Nicola Sturgeon will have 41 seats, up 6. We are also saying according to our data, that Jo Swinson’s the Liberal Democrats and Jonathan Bartley & Sian Berry’s the Greens are at 14, 1 each. Finally, Nigel Farage’s Brexit Party is expected to fail to win any seats.

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[Seat Projection] Conservatives 346 S, Labour 228 S, Scottish Nationals 41 S, Lib Dems 14 S, Plaid Cymru 2 S, Greens 1 S, Brexits 0 S, UK Independence 0 S, Change Group 0 S

Conservatives : 346 Seats (Up 28 Seats From Election2017, Down 22 Seats From November)

Labour : 228 Seats (Down 34 Seats From Election2017, Up 25 Seats From November)

Scot Nationals : 41 Seats (Up 6 Seats From Election2017, Up 0 Seats From November)

Lib Dems : 14 Seats (Up 2 Seats From Election2017, Down 3 Seats From November)

Plaid Cyrmu : 2 Seats (Down 2 Seats From Election2017, Up 0 Seats From November)

Greens : 1 Seats (Up 0 Seats From Election2017, Up 0 Seats From November)

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[Vote Share Projection] Conservatives 42.9%, Labour 33.9%, Lib Dems 12.3%, Scottish Nationals 3.2%, Brexits 3.0%, Greens 2.9%

Conservatives : 42.91% (Down 0.57%p From Election2017, Up 1.84%p From November)

Labour : 33.88% (Down 6.11%p From Election2017, Up 4.15%p From November)

Lib Dems : 12.26% (Up 4.90%p From Election2017, Down 2.66%p From November)

Scot Nationals : 3.21% (Up 0.17%p From Election2017, Down 0.43%p From November)

Brexits : 3.04% (Up 3.04%p From Election2017, Down 2.84%p From November)

Greens : 2.87% (Up 1.24%p From Election2017, Down 0.23%p From November)

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  For more information, click the follwing link :

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1PmNj7fn0g-6Fi6mrwmFD9CzTFlUlv9_4TH3Y2l3rNOU/