[South Korea General Election]2020 August Globe Elections UN Projection/Prediction

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According to Globe Elections UN’s August Projection in South Korea, the Democrats will remain as the largest party, with the United Future Party following just behind. In the other hands, the Justice Party, Open Democrats, People’s Party would gain quite of seats. We are also putting the Progressives(Jinbo Party) up to 1 seat and there are still some possibilities that UFP comes over DPK.

_Poll+Error Projection

-Seat Projection

Democratic Party(DPK / Lean-Left) : 147 Seats (-16 From July, -33 From Last Election)

United Future Party(UFP / Center-Right) : 120 Seats (+14 From July, +17 From Last Election)

Justice Party(JPK / Center-Left) : 15 Seats (+3 From July, +9 From Last Election)

Open Democratic Party(ODP / Lean-Left) : 9 Seats (-2 From July, +6 From Last Election)

People’s Party(PP / Lean-Right) : 9 Seats (+1 From July, +6 From Last Election)

Progressive/Jinbo Party(JBP / Left-wing) : 0 Seats (+0 From July, +0 From Last Election)

Others(OTH / Mixed) : 0 Seats (+0 From July, -5 From Last Election)

-Constituency Vote Share Projection

Democratic Party(DPK / Lean-Left) : 48.22% (-1.42pp From July, -1.69pp From Last Election)

United Future Party(UFP / Center-Right) : 44.99% (+1.87pp From July, +3.53pp From Last Election)

Justice Party(JPK / Center-Left) : 1.79% (+0.15pp From July, +0.08pp From Last Election)

Others(OTH / Mixed) : 5.00% (-0.60pp From July, -1.92pp From Last Election)

-Proportional Vote Share Projection

United Future Party(UFP / Center-Right) : 38.35% (+1.83pp From July, +4.51pp From Last Election)

Democratic Party(DPK / Lean-Left) : 33.65% (-0.78pp From July, +0.29pp From Last Election)

Justice Party(JPK / Center-Left) : 10.54% (+0.90pp From July, +0.87pp From Last Election)

Open Democratic Party(ODP / Lean-Left) : 7.53% (-1.16pp From July, +2.11pp From Last Election)

People’s Party(PP / Lean-Right) : 6.68% (-0.19pp From July, -0.12pp From Last Election)

Others(OTH / Mixed) : 3.25% (-0.60pp From July, -7.66pp From Last Election)

-Presidential Approval

Approval47.17% (-4.31pp From July, -9.03pp From Last Election)

Disapproval52.83% (+4.31pp From July, +9.03pp From Last Election)

_Poll Only Projection

-Proportional Vote Share Projection

Democratic Party(DPK / Lean-Left) : 47.42%

United Future Party(UFP / Center-Right) : 34.01%

Justice Party(JPK / Center-Left) : 6.64%

Open Democratic Party(ODP / Lean-Left) : 5.02%

People’s Party(PP / Lean-Right) : 4.45%

Others(OTH / Mixed) : 2.46%

-Presidential Approval

Approval49.23%

Disapproval50.77% 

FULL DETAILS/RESULTS : https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1OedGyyANVLSUlUEAMw3nJLvQrcJAR7cQhitZKcElN1o/

List of Nations For Working On Election Projections/Predictions : https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1kr8ZSdkUo0b5gQzPURfHQ0cLqcZpVmSWcnDUOK14mOY/

[2020 Taiwan Kaohsiung Mayor Han Kuo-yu Recall Election]Final Projection/Prediction

Globe Elections United Network is projecting that Kaohsiung Mayor Han Kuo-yu will be ousted with 41.82% turnout and 85.51% agreeing to pass the recall motion. 961,832 out of the 2,299,981 registered voters are expected to vote. The recall will pass with a agreement rate of 85.51%, or 822,433 people will agree for recalling Han Kuo-yu. According to GEUN projection, there will be 14.49% disagreement rate. This means that 139,399 voters will vote against the motion.

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Spreadsheet Link For Projection/Prediction And Analysis :

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1A6CVXzCCi4XZyeXvFGSSa-WxtWXboeSzstt0_zKctU8/

[2019 9.17 Israel General Election]Israel Local Three Major Broadcaster Exit Poll Average

[Headline]Gantz’s Blue&White – Netanyahu’s Likud Too Close To Call

[Seat Projection-Major]Blue&White 32 S, Likud 31 S, Joint List 11 S, Israel Our Home 9 S, Shas 9 S

[Seat Projection-Minor]United Tora Judaism 8 S, Yamina 7 S, Labor+Gesher 6 S, Democratic Union 5 S, Jewish Power 0 S

[Vote Share Projection]Blue&White 25.0%, Likud 24.4%, Joint List 10.3%, Israel Our Home 7.0%, Shas 7.0%, United Tora Judaism 6.2%, Yamina 5.3%, Labor+Gesher 4.5%, Democratic Union 4.1%

[2019 9.17 Israel General Election]GEUN/GEHSC.en Final Projection

[Headline]Likud – Blue&White Too Close To Call

[Seat Projection-Major]Likud 32 S, Blue&White 32 S, Joint List 11 S, Our Home 9 S, Yamina 9 S

[Seat Projection-Minor]UTJ 7 S, Shas 7 S, Dem Union 6 S, Labor+Gesher 6 S, Jewish Power 2 S

[Vote Share Projection-Major]Likud 25.1%, Blue&White 24.9%, Joint List 8.3%, Our Home 7.0%, Yamina 6.7%

[Vote Share Projection-Minor]UTJ 5.8%, Shase 5.4%, Dem Union 4.3%, Labor+Gesher 3.9%, Jewish Power 2.1%

Youtube Exit Poll Model Video :

For More Information :

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1MfhLUo8u5iXjNXwJ-TDqtw9O4Q-7ILilOFHhlxYyQIo/

[2019 June Turkey Istanbul Mayoral Election]Final Polling Average from June

Final Polling Average from June with-out Undecied and Non-Voting numbers. 2ND UPDATE

Final Polling Average from June with-in Undecied and Non-Voting numbers. 2ND UPDATE

The photos that were used on the graphic is from Marj3.com, Gann Markets, and Twitter.

For more details, please look at the following link : https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1owg8oLcyC_hKUPtpfw5usemT9M6npALJ_BE14OFDIuc