[United Kingdom General Election]2020 August Globe Elections UN Projection/Prediction

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According to Globe Elections UN’s August Projection in the United Kingdom(UK), we are projecting that the Conservatives will remain as the largest party in the next parliament. In the most likeliest scenario, they’ll have a majority of 18 seats, meaning that the current PM Boris Johnson will possibly be re-elected. But the reason that we’re putting the Tories just simply as the largest party is they could still not have a majority.

_Poll+Error Projection(Full)

-Seat Projection

Conservative Party(CON / Center-Right) : 334 Seats (-7 From July, -31 From Last Election)

Labour Party(LAB / Center-Left) : 229 Seats (+7 From July, +26 From Last Election)

Scottish National Party(SNP / Center-Left) : 58 Seats (+0 From July, +10 From Last Election)

Liberal Democrats(LD / Lean-Left) : 6 Seats (+0 From July, -5 From Last Election)

Plaid Cymru / The Party of Wales(PC / Center-Left) : 4 Seats (+0 From July, +0 From Last Election)

Green Party(GRN / Left-wing) : 1 Seats (+0 From July, +0 From Last Election)

Others(OTH / Mixed) : 18 Seats (+0 From July, +0 From Last Election)

-Vote Share Projection

Conservative Party(CON / Center-Right) : 41.73% (-1.15pp From July, -1.90pp From Last Election)

Labour Party(LAB / Center-Left) : 35.56% (+0.63pp From July, +3.40pp From Last Election)

Liberal Democrats(LD / Lean-Left) : 6.20% (-0.60pp From July, -5.35pp From Last Election)

Scottish National Party(SNP / Center-Left) : 6.06% (+0.73pp From July, +2.18pp From Last Election)

Green Party(GRN / Left-wing) : 3.91% (-0.19pp From July, +1.21pp From Last Election)

UK Independence Party(UKIP / Far-Right) : 1.53% (+0.90pp From July, +1.46pp From Last Election)

Plaid Cymru / The Party of Wales(PC / Center-Left) : 0.45% (-0.24pp From July, -0.03pp From Last Election)

Others(OTH / Mixed) : 4.56% (-0.08pp From July, -0.97pp From Last Election)

_Poll Only Projection

-Vote Share Projection

Conservative Party(CON / Center-Right) : 41.73%

Labour Party(LAB / Center-Left) : 38.35%

Liberal Democrats(LD / Lean-Left) : 6.54%

Scottish National Party(SNP / Center-Left) : 4.93%

Green Party(GRN / Left-wing) : 4.06%

UK Independence Party(UKIP / Far-Right) : 1.56%

Plaid Cymru / Party of Wales(PC / Center-Left) : 0.46%Election)

Others(OTH / Mixed) : 2.37%

FULL DETAILS/RESULTS : https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1cPwBykQjWMhvWH_IXlUz_GjFJe2_XD8UYZw-WQyVSHw/

List of Nations For Working On Election Projections/Predictions : https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1kr8ZSdkUo0b5gQzPURfHQ0cLqcZpVmSWcnDUOK14mOY/

[Poland General Election]2020 August Globe Elections UN Projection/Prediction

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According to Globe Elections UN’s August Projection in Poland, the United Rights will be remaining as the largest party in the next Sejm, but with no majority. The nearest contender, Civic Coalition is currently up slightly compared to the last election. In the other hand Conferderations are now up to third, and The Left, Polish Coalition follows on.

_Poll+Error Projection(Full)

-Seat Projection

United Right(ZP / Right-wing) : 188 Seats (-1 From July, -47 From Last Election)

Civic Coalition(KO / Center Big Tent) : 137 Seats (+7 From July, +3 From Last Election)

Confederation(KWiN / Far-Right) : 52 Seats (+1 From July, +41 From Last Election)

The Left(KL / Left-wing) : 41 Seats (-4 From July, -8 From Last Election)

Polish Coalition(KP / Lean-Right) : 41 Seats (-3 From July, +11 From Last Election)

Others(OTH / Mixed) : 1 Seats (+0 From July, +0 From Last Election)

-Vote Share Projection

United Right(ZP / Right-wing) : 38.84% (-0.57pp From July, -4.75pp From Last Election)

Civic Coalition(KO / Center Big Tent) : 29.68% (+1.36pp From July, +2.26pp From Last Election)

Confederation(KWiN / Far-Right) : 11.22% (+0.03pp From July, +4.41pp From Last Election)

The Left(KL / Left-wing) : 8.80% (-1.05pp From July, -3.76pp From Last Election)

Polish Coalition(KP / Lean-Right) : 8.49% (-0.69pp From July, -0.06pp From Last Election)

Others(OTH / Mixed) : 2.96% (+0.91pp From July, +1.86pp From Last Election)

_Poll Only Projection(V.S.)

-Vote Share Projection

United Right(ZP / Right-wing) : 38.84%

Civic Coalition(KO / Center Big Tent) : 29.68%

The Left(KL / Left-wing) : 9.74%

Confederation(KWiN / Far-Right) : 9.02%

Polish Coalition(KP / Lean-Right) : 6.41%

Others(OTH / Mixed) : 1.58%

FULL DETAILS/RESULTS : https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1ZRib80d4xXf-2-saEjdF6ps_ZXJ3zb4giW-Hg0774kA/

List of Nations For Working On Election Projections/Predictions : https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1kr8ZSdkUo0b5gQzPURfHQ0cLqcZpVmSWcnDUOK14mOY/

[United States Presidential Election]2020 August Globe Elections UN Projection/Prediction

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According to Globe Elections UN’s August Projection in the United States(America), we are projecting that Joe Biden will be elected as the next president. This also means incumbent Donald Trump will be defeated.

-Poll Only Projection(Nationwide)

-Vote Share Projection

Joe Biden(DP / Lean-Left) : 52.81% (-1.45pp From July, +4.63pp From Last Election)

Donald Trump(GOP / Right-wing Big Tent) : 44.10% (-0.53pp From July, -1.98pp From Last Election)

Others(OTH / Mixed) : 3.09% (+1.99pp From July, -2.64pp From Last Election)

-Presidential Approval Projection <Donald Trump>

Approval43.54% (+1.50pp From July)

Disapproval56.46% (-1.50pp From July)

_Swing Only Projection(Statewide)

-Electoral Vote Projection

Joe Biden(DP / Lean-Left) : 350 E.V.s (+1 From July, +123 From Last Election)

Donald Trump(GOP / Right-wing Big Tent) : 188 E.V.s (-1 From July, -116 From Last Election)

Others(OTH / Mixed) : 0 E.V.s (+0 From July, -7 From Last Election)

_Poll+Swing Projection(Statewide)

-Electoral Vote Projection

Joe Biden(DP / Lean-Left) : 388 E.V.s (+50 From July, +161 From Last Election)

Donald Trump(GOP / Right-wing Big Tent) : 150 E.V.s (-50 From July, -154 From Last Election)

Others(OTH / Mixed) : 0 E.V.s (+0 From July, -7 From Last Election)

FULL DETAILS/RESULTS : https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1ShbF3NyEsFbA8U4DavKGbDxkfPgVxvZ4rr26jMYx6ms/

List of Nations For Working On Election Projections/Predictions : https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1kr8ZSdkUo0b5gQzPURfHQ0cLqcZpVmSWcnDUOK14mOY/

[Germany Federal Election]2020 August Globe Elections UN Projection/Prediction

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According to Globe Elections UN’s August Projection in Germany, we are calling that CDU/CSU will be remaining as the largest party. In the other hand, Alliance 90/The Greens are expected to make a push to the second place, the Social Democrats down to third. Alternative for Germany, The Left, Free Democrats will each lose around 20 seats compared to the last election.

_Poll+Error Projection(Full)

-Seat Projection (*Only Including Leveling Seats, No Overhang Seats Included.)

Christian Democratic/Social Union(CDU/CSL / Center-Right) : 218 Seats (+0 From July, -28 From Last Election)

Alliance 90/The Greens(B90/DG / Center-Left) : 134 Seats (+3 From July, +67 From Last Election)

Social Democratic Party(SPD / Center-Left) : 84 Seats (-5 From July, -69 From Last Election)

Alternative For Germany(AfD / Far-Right) : 74 Seats (-1 From July, -20 From Last Election)

The Left(DL / Left-wing) : 47 Seats (+0 From July, -22 From Last Election)

Free Democratic Party(FDP / Lean-Right) : 45 Seats (-35 From July, +3 From Last Election)

Others(OTH / Mixed) : 0 Seats (+0 From July, +0 From Last Election)

-Constituency Vote Share Projection

Christian Democratic/Social Union(CDU/CSL / Center-Right) : 39.18% (+0.04pp From July, +1.92pp From Last Election)

Alliance 90/The Greens(B90/DG / Center-Left) : 19.04% (+0.30pp From July, +11.00pp From Last Election)

Social Democratic Party(SPD / Center-Left) : 15.92% (-1.03pp From July, -8.72pp From Last Election)

Alternative For Germany(AfD / Far-Right) : 10.39% (-0.21pp From July, -1.07pp From Last Election)

The Left(DL / Left-wing) : 6.61% (+0.00pp From July, -1.94pp From Last Election)

Free Democratic Party(FDP / Lean-Right) : 4.66% (+0.31pp From July, -2.34pp From Last Election)

Others(OTH / Mixed) : 4.20% (+0.59pp From July, +1.13pp From Last Election)

-Proportional Vote Share Projection

Christian Democratic/Social Union(CDU/CSL / Center-Right) : 34.05% (-0.20pp From July, +1.12pp From Last Election)

Alliance 90/The Greens(B90/DG / Center-Left) : 20.88% (+0.18pp From July, +11.94pp From Last Election)

Social Democratic Party(SPD / Center-Left) : 13.03% (-0.94pp From July, -7.48pp From Last Election)

Alternative For Germany(AfD / Far-Right) : 11.26% (-0.31pp From July, -1.38pp From Last Election)

Free Democratic Party(FDP / Lean-Right) : 7.03% (+0.42pp From July, -3.72pp From Last Election)

The Left(DL / Left-wing) : 7.02% (-0.05pp From July, -2.22pp From Last Election)

Others(OTH / Mixed) : 6.73% (+0.90pp From July, +1.73pp From Last Election)

-Poll Only Projection(Prop.)

-Proportional Vote Share Projection

Christian Democratic/Social Union(CDU/CSL / Center-Right) : 37.55% 

Alliance 90/The Greens(B90/DG / Center-Left) : 18.10% 

Social Democratic Party(SPD / Center-Left) : 14.30% 

Alternative For Germany(AfD / Far-Right) : 9.75%

The Left(DL / Left-wing) : 7.70%

Free Democratic Party(FDP / Lean-Right) : 6.12%

Others(OTH / Mixed) : 6.48%

FULL DETAILS/RESULTS : https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1nrrNGsgTlDxIq4pHJ9o-CvbznH9sNFVrUHqZSZ1kJn8/

List of Nations For Working On Election Projections/Predictions : https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1kr8ZSdkUo0b5gQzPURfHQ0cLqcZpVmSWcnDUOK14mOY/

[Italy General Election]2020 August Globe Elections UN Projection/Prediction

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According to Globe Elections UN’s August Projection in Italy, we are calling that it is too early to call for the control of the chamber of deputies. However, we are still putting opposition Center-Right Coalition narrowly over the governing Center Left Coalition+Five Star Movement by 4.63%p.

_Poll+Error Projection

-By Government/Opposition

Opposition : 50.71% (-0.68pp From July, +13.71pp From Last Election)

Government : 46.08% (+1.30pp From July, -12.42pp From Last Election)

Netural : 3.21% (-0.62pp From July, -1.29pp From Last Election)

-By Coalition

Center-Right Coalition(CDX) : 50.71% (-0.68pp From July, +13.71pp From Last Election)

Center-Left Coalition(CSX) : 24.98% (+0.18pp From July, +2.55pp From Last Election)

Five Star Movement(M5S) : 19.11% (+0.86pp From July, -13.57pp From Last Election)

Others(OTH / Mixed – OTH) : 3.21% (-0.62pp From July, -1.29pp From Last Election)

The Left(LS) : 1.99% (+0.26pp From July, -1.40pp From Last Election)

-By Party

League(LN / Far-Right – CDX) : 29.72% (-2.22pp From July, +12.37pp From Last Election)

Five Star Movement(M5S / Big Tent – M5S) : 19.11% (+0.86pp From July, -13.57pp From Last Election)

Democratic Party(PD / Center-Left – CSX) : 16.45% (-0.03pp From July, -2.31pp From Last Election)

Brother of Italy(FdI / Right-wing – CDX) : 14.34% (+0.95pp From July, +9.99pp From Last Election)

Foward Italy(FI / Center-Right – CDX) : 6.37% (+0.76pp From July, -7.63pp From Last Election)

Action(A / Lean-Left – CSX) : 2.61% (+0.08pp From July NEW PARTY)

Italy Alive(IV / Lean-Left – CSX) : 2.57% (-0.65pp From July, NEW PARTY)

The Left(LS / Left-wing – LS) : 1.99% (+0.26pp From July, -1.40pp From Last Election)

More Europe(+E / Lean-Left – CSX) : 1.97% (+0.47pp From July, -0.59pp From Last Election)

Green Europe(EV / Left-wing – CSX) : 1.38% (+0.31pp From July, +0.80pp From Last Election)

Let’s Change!(C! / Center-Right – CDX) : 0.29% (-0.16pp From July, NEW PARTY)

Others(OTH / Mixed – OTH) : 3.21% (-0.62pp From July, -1.29pp From Last Election)

_Poll Only Projection

-By Government/Opposition

Government : 49.21%

Opposition : 47.76%

Netural : 3.03%

-By Coalition

Center-Right Coalition(CDX) : 47.76%

Center-Left Coalition(CSX) : 29.45%

Five Star Movement(M5S) : 16.80%

The Left(LS) : 3.26%

Others(OTH) : 3.03%

-By Party

League(LN / Far-Right – CDX) : 24.38%

Democratic Party(PD / Center-Left – CSX) : 20.32%

Five Star Movement(M5S / Big Tent – M5S) : 16.50%

Brother of Italy(FdI / Right-wing – CDX) : 15.63%

Foward Italy(FI / Center-Right – CDX) : 7.45%

The Left(LS / Left-wing – LS) : 3.26%

Action(A / Lean-Left – CSX) : 2.66%

Italy Alive(IV / Lean-Left – CSX) : 2.61%

More Europe(+E / Lean-Left – CSX) : 2.00%

Green Europe(EV / Left-wing – CSX) : 1.86%

Let’s Change!(C! / Center-Right – CDX) : 0.30%

Others(OTH / Mixed – OTH) : 3.03%

FULL DETAILS/RESULTS : https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1s3qfiM5NzZ6MLP-fkF2Nya5olRf3w1T0tNASdcsxOIQ/

List of Nations For Working On Election Projections/Predictions : https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1kr8ZSdkUo0b5gQzPURfHQ0cLqcZpVmSWcnDUOK14mOY/

[2020 Poland Presidential Election]2nd Round Globe Elections UN Final Projection/Prediction

-National Projection

Globe Elections United Network is officially projecting that it is too close to call between Andrzej Duda and Rafal Trzaskowski on the 2nd round of Poland presidential election. However, Duda is sill slightly ahead of Trzaskowski by 0.10%p.

-Final(Poll-Base) Projection/Prediction

Andrzej Duda(ZP/United Right – Right-wing) : 50.05% (Incumbent)

Rafal Trzaskowski(KO/Civic Coalition – Center Big Tent) : 49.95%

According to this Final Projection/Prediction, Warsaw Mayor Trzaskowski and President Duda will win 9(8 Safe, 1 Lean), 7(5 Safe, 2 Lean) voivodeships each.

For more detailed information, please visit the following Spreadsheet.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1u6dDh-GtiLeFnfK9Kbb_cZvyXTP9iN3FdOQUVJVDNdc/

-Voivodeship-by-Voivodeship Projection

[2020 Poland Presidential Election]2nd Round R1-Base Projection/Prediction

-National Projection

Globe Elections United Network is projecting that Andrzej Duda is narrowly leading over Rafal Trzaskowski on the 2nd round of voting according to the 1st round results. Duda is expected to gain 50.80% of the valid votes, Trzaskowski just behind by 1.60%p with 49.20%.

According to the R1-Base Projection, Warsaw Mayor Rafal Trzaskowski is expected to win 10 out of 16 Voivodeships in Poland. The remaining 6 will be won by President Duda.

For more detailed information, please visit the following Spreadsheet.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1u6dDh-GtiLeFnfK9Kbb_cZvyXTP9iN3FdOQUVJVDNdc/

-Voivodeship-By-Voivodeship Projection

[2020 Poland Presidential Election]1st Round Final Full Results & Projection/Prediction Analysis

As the official results for the 1st Round Of 2020 Poland Presidential Election are in, Andrzej Duda and Rafal Trzaskowski will be facing off in the run-off – which will be held on July 12th. Including these two candidates, the main candidates for this election held the following support.

-Official Results(100.00% Counted)

Andrzej Duda(ZP/United Right – Right-wing) : 8,450,513 Votes / 48.18% (Incumbent)

Rafal Trzaskowski(KO/Civic Coalition – Center Big Tent) : 5,917,340 Votes / 30.46%

Szymon Hołownia(IND/Independent – Center) : 2,693,397 Votes / 13.87%

Krzysztof Bosak(KWiN/Confederation Freedom and Independence – Far-Right) : 1,317,380 Votes / 6.78%

Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz(KP/Polish Coalition – Lean-Right) : 459,365 Votes / 2.37%

Robert Biedroń(LEWICA/The Left – Left-wing) : 432,129 Votes / 2.23%

Other Candidates(OTH/Other Parties – Mixed) : 155,335 Votes / 0.80%

The turnout for this election was 64.51%, which is 15.55%p higher than the last election in 2015. Also, this was the second-highest turnout ever in any Poland Elections. (After 1995 Poland Presidential Election) Detailly, 19,483,760 poles out of 30,204,792 registered voters turned out to vote.

President Duda won 13 out of 16 Voivodeships in Poland, and the remaining 3 has been won by Warsaw Mayor Rafal Trzaskowski. (Exactly Same With How We Projected/Predicted!)

And here is the final analysis of all projections/predictions/forecasts made for this election.

-AnalysisAndrzej DudaRafal TrzaskowskiSzymon HołowniaKrzysztof BosakWładysław Kosiniak
-Kamysz
Robert BiedrońAVERAGE
(OTH Also Included)
ZP / United RightKO /
Civic Coalition
BEZ / IndependentKWiN / Confederation
Freedom and
Independence
KP / Polish CoaltionLEWICA / The Left
Right-wingCenter Big TentCenterFar-RightLean-RightLeft-wing
Results43.50%30.46%13.87%6.78%2.36%2.22%
Final Projection
(Polls+Error Cover)
48.18%24.06%10.75%4.81%6.69%2.44%
“Error”4.68%-6.41%-3.12%-1.97%4.32%0.21%±3.28%
Start Projection
(Polls Only)
43.09%28.89%11.72%6.76%5.15%3.67%
“Error”-0.41%-1.57%-2.15%-0.02%2.79%1.45%±1.21%
StanPolityki(SP) Forecast41.14%30.49%12.96%7.31%3.57%3.61%
“Error”-2.36%0.03%-0.91%0.53%1.21%1.39%±0.94%
Ewybory Projection40.80%27.90%12.20%6.80%4.20%3.70%
“Error”-2.70%-2.56%-1.67%0.02%1.84%1.48%±1.99%
Ipsos Exit Poll41.80%30.40%13.30%7.40%2.60%2.90%
“Error”-1.70%-0.06%-0.57%0.62%0.24%0.68%±0.67%

#Conclusion : Don’t Error Cover On Presidential Elections, Only Use Polling Data From Reliable Sources.

Full Analysis And Final Projection/Prediction Can Be Found Below.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/13rs5BZW0NSRi2MAO9PPUh_q9RPXFACsUY93d2wl-MuM/

[2020 Poland Presidential Election]1st Round Globe Elections UN Final Projection/Prediction

Globe Elections United Network is officially projecting that Andrzej Duda and Rafal Trzaskowski will be facing in july run-off on the Poland presidential election. Including these two candidates, the main candidates of this election are projected to be getting the following vote share.

-Official(Polls+Error Cover) Final Projection/Prediction

Andrzej Duda(ZP/United Right – Right-wing) : 48.18% (Incumbent)

Rafal Trzaskowski(KO/Civic Coalition – Center Big Tent) : 24.06%

Szymon Hołownia(IND/Independent – Center) : 10.75%

Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz(KP/Polish Coalition – Lean-Right) : 6.69%

Krzysztof Bosak(KWiN/Confederation Freedom and Independence – Far-Right) : 4.81%

Robert Biedroń(LEWICA/The Left – Left-wing) : 2.44%

Other Candidates(OTH/Other Parties – Mixed) : 3.08%

According to this Final Projection/Prediction, President Duda is expected to win 13 out of 16 Voivodeships in Poland. The remaining 3 will be won by Warsaw Mayor Rafal Trzaskowski.

Additionally looking at the Polls-only Projection/Prediction, the candidates finished as follows.

-Polls-only Final Projection/Prediction

Andrzej Duda(ZP/United Right – Right-wing) : 43.09% (Incumbent)

Rafal Trzaskowski(KO/Civic Coalition – Center Big Tent) : 28.89%

Szymon Hołownia(IND/Independent – Center) : 11.72%

Krzysztof Bosak(KWiN/Confederation Freedom and Independence – Far-Right) : 6.76%

Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz(KP/Polish Coalition – Lean-Right) : 5.15%

Robert Biedroń(LEWICA/The Left – Left-wing) : 3.67%

Other Candidates(OTH/Other Parties – Mixed) : 0.71%

According to polls-only Final Projection/Prediction, President Duda is expected to win 12 out of 16 Voivodeships in Poland. The remaining 4 will be won by Warsaw Mayor Rafal Trzaskowski.

For more detailed information, please visit the following Spreadsheet.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/13rs5BZW0NSRi2MAO9PPUh_q9RPXFACsUY93d2wl-MuM/