[South Korea General Election]2020 September Globe Elections UN Projection/Prediction

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According to Globe Elections UN’s September Projection in South Korea, we are projecting it is too close to call between DPK and UFP but the Democrats are slightly leading UFP at this stage. In the other hands, the Justice Party, People’s Party, Open Democrats would increase the seat numbers significantly compared to the last election. We are also putting the Progressives(Jinbo Party) up to a single seat.

_Poll+Error Projection

-Seat Projection

Democratic Party(DPK / Lean-Left) : 140 Seats (-7 From August, -40 From Last Election)

United Future Party(UFP / Center-Right) : 125 Seats (+5 From August, +22 From Last Election)

Justice Party(JPK / Center-Left) : 16 Seats (+1 From August +10 From Last Election)

People’s Party(PP / Lean-Right) : 10 Seats (+1 From August, +7 From Last Election)

Open Democratic Party(ODP / Lean-Left) : 9 Seats (+0 From August, +6 From Last Election)

Progressive/Jinbo Party(JBP / Left-wing) : 0 Seats (+0 From August, +0 From Last Election)

Others(OTH / Mixed) : 0 Seats (+0 From August, -5 From Last Election)

-Constituency Vote Share Projection

Democratic Party(DPK / Lean-Left) : 47.22% (-1.00pp From August, -1.69pp From Last Election)

United Future Party(UFP / Center-Right) : 45.44% (+0.45pp From August, +3.53pp From Last Election)

Justice Party(JPK / Center-Left) : 1.93% (+0.29pp From August, +0.22pp From Last Election)

Others(OTH / Mixed) : 5.41% (+0.41pp From August, -1.51pp From Last Election)

-Proportional Vote Share Projection

United Future Party(UFP / Center-Right) : 38.00% (-0.35pp From August, +4.16pp From Last Election)

Democratic Party(DPK / Lean-Left) : 32.33% (-1.32pp From August, -2.86pp From Last Election)

Justice Party(JPK / Center-Left) : 11.15% (+0.61pp From August, +1.48pp From Last Election)

People’s Party(PP / Lean-Right) : 7.55% (+0.87pp From August, +0.75pp From Last Election)

Open Democratic Party(ODP / Lean-Left) : 6.64% (-0.89pp From August, +1.20pp From Last Election)

Others(OTH / Mixed) : 4.33% (+1.08pp From August, -6.58pp From Last Election)

-Presidential Approval

Approval48.31% (+1.14pp From August, -7.89pp From Last Election)

Disapproval51.69% (-1.14pp From August, +7.89pp From Last Election)

_Poll Only Projection

-Proportional Vote Share Projection

Democratic Party(DPK / Lean-Left) : 47.58%

United Future Party(UFP / Center-Right) : 34.38%

Justice Party(JPK / Center-Left) : 5.35%

Open Democratic Party(ODP / Lean-Left) : 5.20%

People’s Party(PP / Lean-Right) : 4.49%

Others(OTH / Mixed) : 3.00%

-Presidential Approval

Approval50.38%

Disapproval49.62% 

FULL DETAILS/RESULTS : https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1KQzI6Uh8rQJ5kUTsM8K_FxTJG2iWSydDK2qQiZeqNiY/

List of Nations For Working On Election Projections/Predictions : https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1kr8ZSdkUo0b5gQzPURfHQ0cLqcZpVmSWcnDUOK14mOY/

[United States Presidential Election]2020 Septmeber Globe Elections UN Projection/Prediction

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This image has an empty alt attribute; its file name is ec8aaceb9dbcec9db4eb939c3-1.jpg

According to Globe Elections UN’s August Projection in the United States(America), we are projecting that Joe Biden will be elected as the next president. This also means incumbent Donald Trump will be defeated.

-Poll Only Projection(Nationwide)

-Vote Share Projection

Joe Biden(DP / Lean-Left) : 52.88% (+0.07pp From August, +4.70pp From Last Election)

Donald Trump(GOP / Right-wing Big Tent) : 44.67% (+0.57pp From Augusut, -1.41pp From Last Election)

Others(OTH / Mixed) : 2.45% (-0.64pp From August, -3.28pp From Last Election)

-Presidential Approval Projection <Donald Trump>

Approval45.59% (+2.05pp From August)

Disapproval54.41% (-2.05pp From August)

_Swing Only Projection(Statewide)

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-Electoral Vote Projection

Joe Biden(DP / Lean-Left) : 350 E.V.s (+0 From August, +123 From Last Election)

Donald Trump(GOP / Right-wing Big Tent) : 188 E.V.s (+0 From August, -116 From Last Election)

Others(OTH / Mixed) : 0 E.V.s (+0 From August, -7 From Last Election)

_Poll+Swing Projection(Statewide)

(Garphics Will Be Updated.)

-Electoral Vote Projection

Joe Biden(DP / Lean-Left) : 388 E.V.s (+0 From August, +161 From Last Election)

Donald Trump(GOP / Right-wing Big Tent) : 150 E.V.s (+0 From August, -154 From Last Election)

Others(OTH / Mixed) : 0 E.V.s (+0 From August, -7 From Last Election)

FULL DETAILS/RESULTS :

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1XZI0qd-LhOg5WaS1XEGvF38ohsL6kRjVIMNk-I3vK0U/

List of Nations For Working On Election Projections/Predictions : https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1kr8ZSdkUo0b5gQzPURfHQ0cLqcZpVmSWcnDUOK14mOY/

[South Korea General Election]2020 August Globe Elections UN Projection/Prediction

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According to Globe Elections UN’s August Projection in South Korea, the Democrats will remain as the largest party, with the United Future Party following just behind. In the other hands, the Justice Party, Open Democrats, People’s Party would gain quite of seats. We are also putting the Progressives(Jinbo Party) up to 1 seat and there are still some possibilities that UFP comes over DPK.

_Poll+Error Projection

-Seat Projection

Democratic Party(DPK / Lean-Left) : 147 Seats (-16 From July, -33 From Last Election)

United Future Party(UFP / Center-Right) : 120 Seats (+14 From July, +17 From Last Election)

Justice Party(JPK / Center-Left) : 15 Seats (+3 From July, +9 From Last Election)

Open Democratic Party(ODP / Lean-Left) : 9 Seats (-2 From July, +6 From Last Election)

People’s Party(PP / Lean-Right) : 9 Seats (+1 From July, +6 From Last Election)

Progressive/Jinbo Party(JBP / Left-wing) : 0 Seats (+0 From July, +0 From Last Election)

Others(OTH / Mixed) : 0 Seats (+0 From July, -5 From Last Election)

-Constituency Vote Share Projection

Democratic Party(DPK / Lean-Left) : 48.22% (-1.42pp From July, -1.69pp From Last Election)

United Future Party(UFP / Center-Right) : 44.99% (+1.87pp From July, +3.53pp From Last Election)

Justice Party(JPK / Center-Left) : 1.79% (+0.15pp From July, +0.08pp From Last Election)

Others(OTH / Mixed) : 5.00% (-0.60pp From July, -1.92pp From Last Election)

-Proportional Vote Share Projection

United Future Party(UFP / Center-Right) : 38.35% (+1.83pp From July, +4.51pp From Last Election)

Democratic Party(DPK / Lean-Left) : 33.65% (-0.78pp From July, +0.29pp From Last Election)

Justice Party(JPK / Center-Left) : 10.54% (+0.90pp From July, +0.87pp From Last Election)

Open Democratic Party(ODP / Lean-Left) : 7.53% (-1.16pp From July, +2.11pp From Last Election)

People’s Party(PP / Lean-Right) : 6.68% (-0.19pp From July, -0.12pp From Last Election)

Others(OTH / Mixed) : 3.25% (-0.60pp From July, -7.66pp From Last Election)

-Presidential Approval

Approval47.17% (-4.31pp From July, -9.03pp From Last Election)

Disapproval52.83% (+4.31pp From July, +9.03pp From Last Election)

_Poll Only Projection

-Proportional Vote Share Projection

Democratic Party(DPK / Lean-Left) : 47.42%

United Future Party(UFP / Center-Right) : 34.01%

Justice Party(JPK / Center-Left) : 6.64%

Open Democratic Party(ODP / Lean-Left) : 5.02%

People’s Party(PP / Lean-Right) : 4.45%

Others(OTH / Mixed) : 2.46%

-Presidential Approval

Approval49.23%

Disapproval50.77% 

FULL DETAILS/RESULTS : https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1OedGyyANVLSUlUEAMw3nJLvQrcJAR7cQhitZKcElN1o/

List of Nations For Working On Election Projections/Predictions : https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1kr8ZSdkUo0b5gQzPURfHQ0cLqcZpVmSWcnDUOK14mOY/

[United Kingdom General Election]2020 August Globe Elections UN Projection/Prediction

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According to Globe Elections UN’s August Projection in the United Kingdom(UK), we are projecting that the Conservatives will remain as the largest party in the next parliament. In the most likeliest scenario, they’ll have a majority of 18 seats, meaning that the current PM Boris Johnson will possibly be re-elected. But the reason that we’re putting the Tories just simply as the largest party is they could still not have a majority.

_Poll+Error Projection(Full)

-Seat Projection

Conservative Party(CON / Center-Right) : 334 Seats (-7 From July, -31 From Last Election)

Labour Party(LAB / Center-Left) : 229 Seats (+7 From July, +26 From Last Election)

Scottish National Party(SNP / Center-Left) : 58 Seats (+0 From July, +10 From Last Election)

Liberal Democrats(LD / Lean-Left) : 6 Seats (+0 From July, -5 From Last Election)

Plaid Cymru / The Party of Wales(PC / Center-Left) : 4 Seats (+0 From July, +0 From Last Election)

Green Party(GRN / Left-wing) : 1 Seats (+0 From July, +0 From Last Election)

Others(OTH / Mixed) : 18 Seats (+0 From July, +0 From Last Election)

-Vote Share Projection

Conservative Party(CON / Center-Right) : 41.73% (-1.15pp From July, -1.90pp From Last Election)

Labour Party(LAB / Center-Left) : 35.56% (+0.63pp From July, +3.40pp From Last Election)

Liberal Democrats(LD / Lean-Left) : 6.20% (-0.60pp From July, -5.35pp From Last Election)

Scottish National Party(SNP / Center-Left) : 6.06% (+0.73pp From July, +2.18pp From Last Election)

Green Party(GRN / Left-wing) : 3.91% (-0.19pp From July, +1.21pp From Last Election)

UK Independence Party(UKIP / Far-Right) : 1.53% (+0.90pp From July, +1.46pp From Last Election)

Plaid Cymru / The Party of Wales(PC / Center-Left) : 0.45% (-0.24pp From July, -0.03pp From Last Election)

Others(OTH / Mixed) : 4.56% (-0.08pp From July, -0.97pp From Last Election)

_Poll Only Projection

-Vote Share Projection

Conservative Party(CON / Center-Right) : 41.73%

Labour Party(LAB / Center-Left) : 38.35%

Liberal Democrats(LD / Lean-Left) : 6.54%

Scottish National Party(SNP / Center-Left) : 4.93%

Green Party(GRN / Left-wing) : 4.06%

UK Independence Party(UKIP / Far-Right) : 1.56%

Plaid Cymru / Party of Wales(PC / Center-Left) : 0.46%Election)

Others(OTH / Mixed) : 2.37%

FULL DETAILS/RESULTS : https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1cPwBykQjWMhvWH_IXlUz_GjFJe2_XD8UYZw-WQyVSHw/

List of Nations For Working On Election Projections/Predictions : https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1kr8ZSdkUo0b5gQzPURfHQ0cLqcZpVmSWcnDUOK14mOY/

[Poland General Election]2020 August Globe Elections UN Projection/Prediction

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According to Globe Elections UN’s August Projection in Poland, the United Rights will be remaining as the largest party in the next Sejm, but with no majority. The nearest contender, Civic Coalition is currently up slightly compared to the last election. In the other hand Conferderations are now up to third, and The Left, Polish Coalition follows on.

_Poll+Error Projection(Full)

-Seat Projection

United Right(ZP / Right-wing) : 188 Seats (-1 From July, -47 From Last Election)

Civic Coalition(KO / Center Big Tent) : 137 Seats (+7 From July, +3 From Last Election)

Confederation(KWiN / Far-Right) : 52 Seats (+1 From July, +41 From Last Election)

The Left(KL / Left-wing) : 41 Seats (-4 From July, -8 From Last Election)

Polish Coalition(KP / Lean-Right) : 41 Seats (-3 From July, +11 From Last Election)

Others(OTH / Mixed) : 1 Seats (+0 From July, +0 From Last Election)

-Vote Share Projection

United Right(ZP / Right-wing) : 38.84% (-0.57pp From July, -4.75pp From Last Election)

Civic Coalition(KO / Center Big Tent) : 29.68% (+1.36pp From July, +2.26pp From Last Election)

Confederation(KWiN / Far-Right) : 11.22% (+0.03pp From July, +4.41pp From Last Election)

The Left(KL / Left-wing) : 8.80% (-1.05pp From July, -3.76pp From Last Election)

Polish Coalition(KP / Lean-Right) : 8.49% (-0.69pp From July, -0.06pp From Last Election)

Others(OTH / Mixed) : 2.96% (+0.91pp From July, +1.86pp From Last Election)

_Poll Only Projection(V.S.)

-Vote Share Projection

United Right(ZP / Right-wing) : 38.84%

Civic Coalition(KO / Center Big Tent) : 29.68%

The Left(KL / Left-wing) : 9.74%

Confederation(KWiN / Far-Right) : 9.02%

Polish Coalition(KP / Lean-Right) : 6.41%

Others(OTH / Mixed) : 1.58%

FULL DETAILS/RESULTS : https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1ZRib80d4xXf-2-saEjdF6ps_ZXJ3zb4giW-Hg0774kA/

List of Nations For Working On Election Projections/Predictions : https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1kr8ZSdkUo0b5gQzPURfHQ0cLqcZpVmSWcnDUOK14mOY/

[United States Presidential Election]2020 August Globe Elections UN Projection/Prediction

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According to Globe Elections UN’s August Projection in the United States(America), we are projecting that Joe Biden will be elected as the next president. This also means incumbent Donald Trump will be defeated.

-Poll Only Projection(Nationwide)

-Vote Share Projection

Joe Biden(DP / Lean-Left) : 52.81% (-1.45pp From July, +4.63pp From Last Election)

Donald Trump(GOP / Right-wing Big Tent) : 44.10% (-0.53pp From July, -1.98pp From Last Election)

Others(OTH / Mixed) : 3.09% (+1.99pp From July, -2.64pp From Last Election)

-Presidential Approval Projection <Donald Trump>

Approval43.54% (+1.50pp From July)

Disapproval56.46% (-1.50pp From July)

_Swing Only Projection(Statewide)

-Electoral Vote Projection

Joe Biden(DP / Lean-Left) : 350 E.V.s (+1 From July, +123 From Last Election)

Donald Trump(GOP / Right-wing Big Tent) : 188 E.V.s (-1 From July, -116 From Last Election)

Others(OTH / Mixed) : 0 E.V.s (+0 From July, -7 From Last Election)

_Poll+Swing Projection(Statewide)

-Electoral Vote Projection

Joe Biden(DP / Lean-Left) : 388 E.V.s (+50 From July, +161 From Last Election)

Donald Trump(GOP / Right-wing Big Tent) : 150 E.V.s (-50 From July, -154 From Last Election)

Others(OTH / Mixed) : 0 E.V.s (+0 From July, -7 From Last Election)

FULL DETAILS/RESULTS : https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1ShbF3NyEsFbA8U4DavKGbDxkfPgVxvZ4rr26jMYx6ms/

List of Nations For Working On Election Projections/Predictions : https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1kr8ZSdkUo0b5gQzPURfHQ0cLqcZpVmSWcnDUOK14mOY/