[Germany Federal Election]2020 August Globe Elections UN Projection/Prediction

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According to Globe Elections UN’s August Projection in Germany, we are calling that CDU/CSU will be remaining as the largest party. In the other hand, Alliance 90/The Greens are expected to make a push to the second place, the Social Democrats down to third. Alternative for Germany, The Left, Free Democrats will each lose around 20 seats compared to the last election.

_Poll+Error Projection(Full)

-Seat Projection (*Only Including Leveling Seats, No Overhang Seats Included.)

Christian Democratic/Social Union(CDU/CSL / Center-Right) : 218 Seats (+0 From July, -28 From Last Election)

Alliance 90/The Greens(B90/DG / Center-Left) : 134 Seats (+3 From July, +67 From Last Election)

Social Democratic Party(SPD / Center-Left) : 84 Seats (-5 From July, -69 From Last Election)

Alternative For Germany(AfD / Far-Right) : 74 Seats (-1 From July, -20 From Last Election)

The Left(DL / Left-wing) : 47 Seats (+0 From July, -22 From Last Election)

Free Democratic Party(FDP / Lean-Right) : 45 Seats (-35 From July, +3 From Last Election)

Others(OTH / Mixed) : 0 Seats (+0 From July, +0 From Last Election)

-Constituency Vote Share Projection

Christian Democratic/Social Union(CDU/CSL / Center-Right) : 39.18% (+0.04pp From July, +1.92pp From Last Election)

Alliance 90/The Greens(B90/DG / Center-Left) : 19.04% (+0.30pp From July, +11.00pp From Last Election)

Social Democratic Party(SPD / Center-Left) : 15.92% (-1.03pp From July, -8.72pp From Last Election)

Alternative For Germany(AfD / Far-Right) : 10.39% (-0.21pp From July, -1.07pp From Last Election)

The Left(DL / Left-wing) : 6.61% (+0.00pp From July, -1.94pp From Last Election)

Free Democratic Party(FDP / Lean-Right) : 4.66% (+0.31pp From July, -2.34pp From Last Election)

Others(OTH / Mixed) : 4.20% (+0.59pp From July, +1.13pp From Last Election)

-Proportional Vote Share Projection

Christian Democratic/Social Union(CDU/CSL / Center-Right) : 34.05% (-0.20pp From July, +1.12pp From Last Election)

Alliance 90/The Greens(B90/DG / Center-Left) : 20.88% (+0.18pp From July, +11.94pp From Last Election)

Social Democratic Party(SPD / Center-Left) : 13.03% (-0.94pp From July, -7.48pp From Last Election)

Alternative For Germany(AfD / Far-Right) : 11.26% (-0.31pp From July, -1.38pp From Last Election)

Free Democratic Party(FDP / Lean-Right) : 7.03% (+0.42pp From July, -3.72pp From Last Election)

The Left(DL / Left-wing) : 7.02% (-0.05pp From July, -2.22pp From Last Election)

Others(OTH / Mixed) : 6.73% (+0.90pp From July, +1.73pp From Last Election)

-Poll Only Projection(Prop.)

-Proportional Vote Share Projection

Christian Democratic/Social Union(CDU/CSL / Center-Right) : 37.55% 

Alliance 90/The Greens(B90/DG / Center-Left) : 18.10% 

Social Democratic Party(SPD / Center-Left) : 14.30% 

Alternative For Germany(AfD / Far-Right) : 9.75%

The Left(DL / Left-wing) : 7.70%

Free Democratic Party(FDP / Lean-Right) : 6.12%

Others(OTH / Mixed) : 6.48%

_State-By-State Projection(Poll+Error/Swing Based)

FULL DETAILS/RESULTS : https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1nrrNGsgTlDxIq4pHJ9o-CvbznH9sNFVrUHqZSZ1kJn8/

List of Nations For Working On Election Projections/Predictions : https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1kr8ZSdkUo0b5gQzPURfHQ0cLqcZpVmSWcnDUOK14mOY/

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