[2020 Poland Presidential Election]1st Round Final Full Results & Projection/Prediction Analysis

As the official results for the 1st Round Of 2020 Poland Presidential Election are in, Andrzej Duda and Rafal Trzaskowski will be facing off in the run-off – which will be held on July 12th. Including these two candidates, the main candidates for this election held the following support.

-Official Results(100.00% Counted)

Andrzej Duda(ZP/United Right – Right-wing) : 8,450,513 Votes / 48.18% (Incumbent)

Rafal Trzaskowski(KO/Civic Coalition – Center Big Tent) : 5,917,340 Votes / 30.46%

Szymon Hołownia(IND/Independent – Center) : 2,693,397 Votes / 13.87%

Krzysztof Bosak(KWiN/Confederation Freedom and Independence – Far-Right) : 1,317,380 Votes / 6.78%

Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz(KP/Polish Coalition – Lean-Right) : 459,365 Votes / 2.37%

Robert Biedroń(LEWICA/The Left – Left-wing) : 432,129 Votes / 2.23%

Other Candidates(OTH/Other Parties – Mixed) : 155,335 Votes / 0.80%

The turnout for this election was 64.51%, which is 15.55%p higher than the last election in 2015. Also, this was the second-highest turnout ever in any Poland Elections. (After 1995 Poland Presidential Election) Detailly, 19,483,760 poles out of 30,204,792 registered voters turned out to vote.

President Duda won 13 out of 16 Voivodeships in Poland, and the remaining 3 has been won by Warsaw Mayor Rafal Trzaskowski. (Exactly Same With How We Projected/Predicted!)

And here is the final analysis of all projections/predictions/forecasts made for this election.

-AnalysisAndrzej DudaRafal TrzaskowskiSzymon HołowniaKrzysztof BosakWładysław Kosiniak
-Kamysz
Robert BiedrońAVERAGE
(OTH Also Included)
ZP / United RightKO /
Civic Coalition
BEZ / IndependentKWiN / Confederation
Freedom and
Independence
KP / Polish CoaltionLEWICA / The Left
Right-wingCenter Big TentCenterFar-RightLean-RightLeft-wing
Results43.50%30.46%13.87%6.78%2.36%2.22%
Final Projection
(Polls+Error Cover)
48.18%24.06%10.75%4.81%6.69%2.44%
“Error”4.68%-6.41%-3.12%-1.97%4.32%0.21%±3.28%
Start Projection
(Polls Only)
43.09%28.89%11.72%6.76%5.15%3.67%
“Error”-0.41%-1.57%-2.15%-0.02%2.79%1.45%±1.21%
StanPolityki(SP) Forecast41.14%30.49%12.96%7.31%3.57%3.61%
“Error”-2.36%0.03%-0.91%0.53%1.21%1.39%±0.94%
Ewybory Projection40.80%27.90%12.20%6.80%4.20%3.70%
“Error”-2.70%-2.56%-1.67%0.02%1.84%1.48%±1.99%
Ipsos Exit Poll41.80%30.40%13.30%7.40%2.60%2.90%
“Error”-1.70%-0.06%-0.57%0.62%0.24%0.68%±0.67%

#Conclusion : Don’t Error Cover On Presidential Elections, Only Use Polling Data From Reliable Sources.

Full Analysis And Final Projection/Prediction Can Be Found Below.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/13rs5BZW0NSRi2MAO9PPUh_q9RPXFACsUY93d2wl-MuM/

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