[2020 Poland Presidential Election]1st Round Final Full Results & Projection/Prediction Analysis

As the official results for the 1st Round Of 2020 Poland Presidential Election are in, Andrzej Duda and Rafal Trzaskowski will be facing off in the run-off – which will be held on July 12th. Including these two candidates, the main candidates for this election held the following support.

-Official Results(100.00% Counted)

Andrzej Duda(ZP/United Right – Right-wing) : 8,450,513 Votes / 48.18% (Incumbent)

Rafal Trzaskowski(KO/Civic Coalition – Center Big Tent) : 5,917,340 Votes / 30.46%

Szymon Hołownia(IND/Independent – Center) : 2,693,397 Votes / 13.87%

Krzysztof Bosak(KWiN/Confederation Freedom and Independence – Far-Right) : 1,317,380 Votes / 6.78%

Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz(KP/Polish Coalition – Lean-Right) : 459,365 Votes / 2.37%

Robert Biedroń(LEWICA/The Left – Left-wing) : 432,129 Votes / 2.23%

Other Candidates(OTH/Other Parties – Mixed) : 155,335 Votes / 0.80%

The turnout for this election was 64.51%, which is 15.55%p higher than the last election in 2015. Also, this was the second-highest turnout ever in any Poland Elections. (After 1995 Poland Presidential Election) Detailly, 19,483,760 poles out of 30,204,792 registered voters turned out to vote.

President Duda won 13 out of 16 Voivodeships in Poland, and the remaining 3 has been won by Warsaw Mayor Rafal Trzaskowski. (Exactly Same With How We Projected/Predicted!)

And here is the final analysis of all projections/predictions/forecasts made for this election.

-AnalysisAndrzej DudaRafal TrzaskowskiSzymon HołowniaKrzysztof BosakWładysław Kosiniak
-Kamysz
Robert BiedrońAVERAGE
(OTH Also Included)
ZP / United RightKO /
Civic Coalition
BEZ / IndependentKWiN / Confederation
Freedom and
Independence
KP / Polish CoaltionLEWICA / The Left
Right-wingCenter Big TentCenterFar-RightLean-RightLeft-wing
Results43.50%30.46%13.87%6.78%2.36%2.22%
Final Projection
(Polls+Error Cover)
48.18%24.06%10.75%4.81%6.69%2.44%
“Error”4.68%-6.41%-3.12%-1.97%4.32%0.21%±3.28%
Start Projection
(Polls Only)
43.09%28.89%11.72%6.76%5.15%3.67%
“Error”-0.41%-1.57%-2.15%-0.02%2.79%1.45%±1.21%
StanPolityki(SP) Forecast41.14%30.49%12.96%7.31%3.57%3.61%
“Error”-2.36%0.03%-0.91%0.53%1.21%1.39%±0.94%
Ewybory Projection40.80%27.90%12.20%6.80%4.20%3.70%
“Error”-2.70%-2.56%-1.67%0.02%1.84%1.48%±1.99%
Ipsos Exit Poll41.80%30.40%13.30%7.40%2.60%2.90%
“Error”-1.70%-0.06%-0.57%0.62%0.24%0.68%±0.67%

#Conclusion : Don’t Error Cover On Presidential Elections, Only Use Polling Data From Reliable Sources.

Full Analysis And Final Projection/Prediction Can Be Found Below.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/13rs5BZW0NSRi2MAO9PPUh_q9RPXFACsUY93d2wl-MuM/

[2020 Poland Presidential Election]1st Round Globe Elections UN Final Projection/Prediction

Globe Elections United Network is officially projecting that Andrzej Duda and Rafal Trzaskowski will be facing in july run-off on the Poland presidential election. Including these two candidates, the main candidates of this election are projected to be getting the following vote share.

-Official(Polls+Error Cover) Final Projection/Prediction

Andrzej Duda(ZP/United Right – Right-wing) : 48.18% (Incumbent)

Rafal Trzaskowski(KO/Civic Coalition – Center Big Tent) : 24.06%

Szymon Hołownia(IND/Independent – Center) : 10.75%

Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz(KP/Polish Coalition – Lean-Right) : 6.69%

Krzysztof Bosak(KWiN/Confederation Freedom and Independence – Far-Right) : 4.81%

Robert Biedroń(LEWICA/The Left – Left-wing) : 2.44%

Other Candidates(OTH/Other Parties – Mixed) : 3.08%

According to this Final Projection/Prediction, President Duda is expected to win 13 out of 16 Voivodeships in Poland. The remaining 3 will be won by Warsaw Mayor Rafal Trzaskowski.

Additionally looking at the Polls-only Projection/Prediction, the candidates finished as follows.

-Polls-only Final Projection/Prediction

Andrzej Duda(ZP/United Right – Right-wing) : 43.09% (Incumbent)

Rafal Trzaskowski(KO/Civic Coalition – Center Big Tent) : 28.89%

Szymon Hołownia(IND/Independent – Center) : 11.72%

Krzysztof Bosak(KWiN/Confederation Freedom and Independence – Far-Right) : 6.76%

Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz(KP/Polish Coalition – Lean-Right) : 5.15%

Robert Biedroń(LEWICA/The Left – Left-wing) : 3.67%

Other Candidates(OTH/Other Parties – Mixed) : 0.71%

According to polls-only Final Projection/Prediction, President Duda is expected to win 12 out of 16 Voivodeships in Poland. The remaining 4 will be won by Warsaw Mayor Rafal Trzaskowski.

For more detailed information, please visit the following Spreadsheet.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/13rs5BZW0NSRi2MAO9PPUh_q9RPXFACsUY93d2wl-MuM/

[2020 Taiwan Kaohsiung Mayor Han Kuo-yu Recall Election]Final Results

Kaohsiung Mayor Han Kuo-yu has been removed from office with 42.14% turnout and 97.40% agreeing to pass the recall motion. 969,259 out of the 2,299,981 registered voters has voted today. The recall has passed with a agreement rate of 97.40%(939,090/964,141). According to the official results by CEC, 2.60%(25,051/964,141) of the voters voted against to recall Han Kuo-yu.

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Spreadsheet Link For Projection/Prediction And Analysis :

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1A6CVXzCCi4XZyeXvFGSSa-WxtWXboeSzstt0_zKctU8/

Official Results Link :

https://web.cec.gov.tw/central/cms/109news/33404

[2020 Taiwan Kaohsiung Mayor Han Kuo-yu Recall Election]Final Projection/Prediction

Globe Elections United Network is projecting that Kaohsiung Mayor Han Kuo-yu will be ousted with 41.82% turnout and 85.51% agreeing to pass the recall motion. 961,832 out of the 2,299,981 registered voters are expected to vote. The recall will pass with a agreement rate of 85.51%, or 822,433 people will agree for recalling Han Kuo-yu. According to GEUN projection, there will be 14.49% disagreement rate. This means that 139,399 voters will vote against the motion.

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Spreadsheet Link For Projection/Prediction And Analysis :

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1A6CVXzCCi4XZyeXvFGSSa-WxtWXboeSzstt0_zKctU8/