[United Kingdom General Election]2021 January Globe Elections UN Projection/Prediction/Forecast

_Headline

According to Globe Elections UN’s January Projection in the United Kingdom(UK), we are projecting that the Conservatives are most likely to be the largest party in the next parliament. But at the current scenario, they’ll be short of 66 seats from the majority, meaning the potential Progressive Alliance could possibly from a new government.

_POLL+ERROR PROJECTION

-Seat Projection

Conservative Party(CON / Center-Right) : 292 Seats (-5 From Dec ’20, -63 From Last Election)

Labour Party(LAB / Center-Left) : 273 Seats (+8 From Dec ’20, +70 From Last Election)

Scottish National Party(SNP / Center-Left) : 55 Seats (-3 From Dec ’20, +7 From Last Election)

Liberal Democrats(LD / Lean-Left) : 7 Seats (+0 From Dec ’20, -4 From Last Election)

Plaid Cymru / Party of Wales(PC / Center-Left) : 4 Seats (+0 From Dec ’20, +0 From Last Election)

Green Party(GRN / Left-wing) : 1 Seats (+0 From Dec ’20, +0 From Last Election)

Reform UK(RUK / Big Tent) : 0 Seats (+0 From Dec ’20, +0 From Last Election)

UK Independence Party(UKIP / Far-Right) : 0 Seats (+0 From Dec ’20, +0 From Last Election)

Others(OTH / Mixed) : 18 Seats (+0 From Dec ’20, +0 From Last Election)

-Vote Share Projection

Labour Party(LAB / Center-Left) : 38.12% (+0.58pp From Dec ’20, +5.96pp From Last Election)

Conservative Party(CON / Center-Right) : 36.82% (-0.62pp From Dec ’20, -6.81pp From Last Election)

Liberal Democrats(LD / Lean-Left) : 7.15% (+0.93pp From Dec ’20, -4.68pp From Last Election)

Green Party(GRN / Left-wing) : 5.35% (+1.58pp From Dec ’20, +2.67pp From Last Election)

Scottish National Party(SNP / Center-Left) : 4.13% (-0.82pp From Dec ’20, +0.25pp From Last Election)

Reform UK(RUK / Big Tent) : 2.12% (+0.19pp From Dec ’20, +0.11pp From Last Election)

Plaid Cymru / Party of Wales(PC / Center-Left) : 1.68% (-0.46pp From Dec ’20, +1.20pp From Last Election)

UK Independence Party(UKIP / Far-Right) : 0.56% (-2.02pp From Dec ’20, +0.49pp From Last Election)

Others(OTH / Mixed) : 4.07% (+0.64pp From Dec ’20, +0.54pp From Last Election)

_POLL BASE PROJECTION

-Vote Share Projection

Labour Party(LAB / Center-Left) : 38.27%

Conservative Party(CON / Center-Right) : 37.22%

Liberal Democrats(LD / Lean-Left) : 7.55%

Green Party(GRN / Left-wing) : 5.98%

Scottish National Party(SNP / Center-Left) : 4.19%

Reform UK(RUK / Big Tent) : 3.87%

Plaid Cymru / Party of Wales(PC / Center-Left) : 0.70%

UK Independence Party(UKIP / Far-Right) : 0.25%

Others(OTH / Mixed) : 1.97%

_FULL DETAILS/RESULTS

: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1x2c8H3zknlIMeTZ_Fr9dVbc_Ng4YfBExjyTT5dzyhaU/

_Globe Elections Projection/Prediction/Forecast Dashboard

: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1kr8ZSdkUo0b5gQzPURfHQ0cLqcZpVmSWcnDUOK14mOY/

[Poland General Election]2021 January Globe Elections UN Projection/Prediction/Forecast

_HEADLINE

According to Globe Elections UN’s August Projection in Poland, the United Rights will be remaining as the largest coalition in the next Sejm, but with no majority. The nearest contender, Civic Coalition is currently down slightly compared to the last election. This is due to rise of Poland 2050, a new party formed by Szymon Hołownia. In the other hand, The Left and Polish Coalition is almost steady with the last election, and Confederation is still pretty significantly up.

_POLL+ERROR PROJECTION

-Seat Projection

United Right(ZP / Right-wing) : 154 Seats

(+5 From Dec ’20, -81 From Last Election)

Civic Coalition(KO / Center Big Tent) : 110 Seats

(-1 From Dec ’20, -24 From Last Election)

Poland 2050(PL2050 / Center) : 76 Seats

(-4 From Dec ’20, NEW PARTY)

The Left(KL / Left-wing) : 46 Seats

(+1 From Dec ’20, -3 From Last Election)

Confederation Freedom and Independence(KWiN / Far-Right) : 43 Seats

(+1 From Dec ’20, +32 From Last Election)

Polish Coalition(KP / Lean-Right) : 32 Seats

(+0 From Dec ’20, +2 From Last Election)

Kukiz’ 15(K15 / Center-Right) : 0 Seats

(NEW PARTY, NEW PARTY)

Others(OTH / Mixed) : 1 Seats

(+0 From Dec ’20, +0 From Last Election)

-Vote Share Projection

United Right(ZP / Right-wing) : 30.99%

(+1.02pp From Dec ’20, -12.60pp From Last Election)

Civic Coalition(KO / Center Big Tent) : 23.28%

(-1.10pp From Dec ’20, -4.14pp From Last Election)

Poland 2050(PL2050 / Center) : 15.85%

(-1.68pp From Dec ’20, NEW PARTY)

The Left(KL / Left-wing) : 9.57%

(-0.10pp From Dec ’20, -3.00pp From Last Election)

Confederation Freedom and Independence(KWiN / Far-Right) : 8.83%

(-0.28pp From Dec ’20, +2.02pp From Last Election)

Polish Coalition(KP / Lean-Right) : 6.53%

(+0.04pp From Dec ’20, -2.02pp From Last Election)

Kukiz’ 15(K15 / Center-Right) : 3.02%

(NEW PARTY, NEW PARTY)

Others(OTH / Mixed) : 1.93%

(-0.92pp From Dec ’20, +0.83pp From Last Election)

_POLL BASE PROJECTION

-Vote Share Projection

United Right(ZP / Right-wing) : 34.75%

Civic Coalition(KO / Center Big Tent) : 23.38%

Poland 2050(PL2050 / Center) : 15.92%

The Left(KL / Left-wing) : 10.60%

Confederation Freedom and Independence(KWiN / Far-Right) : 7.11%

Polish Coalition(KP / Lean-Right) : 4.93%

Kukiz’ 15(K15 / Center-Right) : 2.28%

Others(OTH / Mixed) : 1.03%

_FULL DETAILS/RESULTS

: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1iKOPbrazfRlc7mk_gegOAqojhhHWhi0wJsYIhOs8a7E/

_Globe Elections Projection/Prediction/Forecast Dashboard

: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1kr8ZSdkUo0b5gQzPURfHQ0cLqcZpVmSWcnDUOK14mOY/

[Germany Federal Election]2021 January Globe Elections UN Projection/Prediction/Forecast

_HEADLINE

According to Globe Elections UN’s January Projection in Germany, we are projecting that CDU/CSU will be remaining as the largest party. In the other hand, Alliance 90/The Greens is expected to make a push to the second place and the Social Democrats down to under 100 seats. Alternative for Germany, Free Democrats, The Left will each lose around 20 seats compared to the last election.

_POLL+ERROR PROJECTION

-Seat Projection (*Only Including Leveling Seats, No Overhang Seats Included.)

Christian Democratic Union/Christian Social Union(CDU/CSL / Center-Right) : 208 Seats

(+1 From Dec ’20, -38 From Last Election)

Alliance 90/The Greens(B90/DG / Center-Left) : 131 Seats

(-12 From Dec ’20, +64 From Last Election)

Social Democratic Party(SPD / Center-Left) : 91 Seats

(+2 From Dec ’20, -62 From Last Election)

Alternative For Germany(AfD / Far-Right) : 75 Seats

(+5 From Dec ’20, -19 From Last Election)

Free Democratic Party(FDP / Lean-Right) : 50 Seats

(+2 From Dec ’20, -30 From Last Election)

The Left(DL / Left-wing) : 48 Seats

(+3 From Dec ’20, -21 From Last Election)

Others(OTH / Mixed) : 0 Seats

(+0 From Dec ’20, +0 From Last Election)

-Constituency Vote Share Projection

Christian Democratic/Social Union(CDU/CSL / Center-Right) : 37.46%

(-0.07pp From Dec ’20, +0.20pp From Last Election)

Alliance 90/The Greens(B90/DG / Center-Left) : 18.73%

(-1.81pp From Dec ’20, +10.69pp From Last Election)

Social Democratic Party(SPD / Center-Left) : 17.30%

(+0.22pp From Dec ’20, -7.34pp From Last Election)

Alternative For Germany(AfD / Far-Right) : 10.19%

(+0.31pp From Dec ’20, -1.27pp From Last Election)

The Left(DL / Left-wing) : 6.95%

(+0.58pp From Dec ’20, -1.60pp From Last Election)

Free Democratic Party(FDP / Lean-Right) : 5.16%

(+0.19pp From Dec ’20, -1.84pp From Last Election)

Others(OTH / Mixed) : 4.21%

(+0.58pp From Dec ’20, +1.24pp From Last Election)

-Proportional Vote Share Projection

Christian Democratic/Social Union(CDU/CSL / Center-Right) : 32.48%

(-0.16pp From Dec ’20, -0.45pp From Last Election)

Alliance 90/The Greens(B90/DG / Center-Left) : 20.50%

(-2.04pp From Dec ’20, +11.56pp From Last Election)

Social Democratic Party(SPD / Center-Left) : 14.13%

(+0.14pp From Dec ’20, -6.38pp From Last Election)

Alternative For Germany(AfD / Far-Right) : 11.02%

(+0.30pp From Dec ’20, -1.62pp From Last Election)

Free Democratic Party(FDP / Lean-Right) : 7.77%

(+0.26pp From Dec ’20, -2.98pp From Last Election)

The Left(DL / Left-wing) : 7.36%

(+0.59pp From Dec ’20, -1.88pp From Last Election)

Others(OTH / Mixed) : 6.74%

(+0.91pp From Dec ’20, +1.95pp From Last Election)

-POLL BASE PROJECTION

-Proportional Vote Share Projection

Christian Democratic/Social Union(CDU/CSL / Center-Right) : 35.83% 

Alliance 90/The Greens(B90/DG / Center-Left) : 17.77% 

Social Democratic Party(SPD / Center-Left) : 15.51% 

Alternative For Germany(AfD / Far-Right) : 9.55%

The Left(DL / Left-wing) : 8.09%

Free Democratic Party(FDP / Lean-Right) : 6.76%

Others(OTH / Mixed) : 6.49%

_FULL DETAILS/RESULTS

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/13BH3eNpRocFjYegi3Y908ezkjCjmr1pvJ1TLWBzeVEY/

_Globe Elections Projection/Prediction/Forecast Dashboard

: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1kr8ZSdkUo0b5gQzPURfHQ0cLqcZpVmSWcnDUOK14mOY/

[Italy General Election]2021 January Globe Elections UN Projection/Prediction/Forecast

_HEADLINE

According to Globe Elections UN’s January Projection in Italy, we are projecting that mian opposition Center-Right Coalition is ahead of government Center Left Coalition+Five Star Movement.

_POLL+ERROR PROJECTION

-By Government/Opposition

Government : 44.59%

(+0.54pp From Jan ’20, -13.92pp From Last Election)

Opposition : 51.57%

(+0.48pp From Jan ’20, +14.57pp From Last Election)

Netural : 3.84%

(-1.02pp From Jan ’20, +0.66pp From Last Election)

-By Coalition

Center-Right Coalition(CDX / Center-Right) : 51.57%

(+0.48pp From Jan ’20, +14.57pp From Last Election)

Center-Left Coalition(CSX / Center-Left) : 25.78%

(+0.57pp From Jan ’20, +3.35pp From Last Election)

Five Star Movement(M5S / Big Tent) : 16.86%

(-0.23pp From Jan ’20, -15.82pp From Last Election)

Others(OTH / Mixed) : 3.84%

(-1.02pp From Jan ’20, -0.66pp From Last Election)

The Left(LS / Left-wing) : 1.95%

(+0.06pp From Jan ’20, -1.04pp From Last Election)

-By Party

League(LN / Far-Right – CDX) : 30.44%

(+0.63pp From Jan ’20, +13.09pp From Last Election)

Five Star Movement(M5S / Big Tent – M5S) : 16.86%

(-0.23pp From Jan ’20, -15.82pp From Last Election)

Democratic Party(PD / Center-Left – CSX) : 16.78%

(-0.08pp From Jan ’20, -1.98pp From Last Election)

Brothers of Italy(FdI / Right-wing – CDX) : 14.96%

(-0.29pp From Jan ’20, +10.61pp From Last Election)

Foward Italy(FI / Center-Right – CDX) : 6.19%

(+0.18pp From Jan ’20, -7.99pp From Last Election)

Action(A / Lean-Left – CSX) : 2.89%

(+0.19pp From Jan ’20, NEW PARTY)

Italy Alive(IV / Lean-Left – CSX) : 2.82%

(+0.18pp From Jan ’20, NEW PARTY)

More Europe(+E / Lean-Left – CSX) : 1.98%

(+0.06pp From Jan ’20, -0.69pp From Last Election)

The Left(LS / Left-wing – LS) : 1.95%

(+0.06pp From Jan ’20, -1.04pp From Last Election)

Green Europe(EV / Left-wing – CSX) : 1.46%

(+0.22pp From Jan ’20, +0.76pp From Last Election)

Others(OTH / Mixed – MIXED) : 3.67%

(-0.92pp From Jan ’20, -0.93pp From Last Election)

_POLL BASE PROJECTION

-By Government/Opposition

Government : 48.78%

Opposition : 47.87%

Netural : 3.35%

-By Coalition

Center-Right Coalition(CDX) : 47.87%

Center-Left Coalition(CSX) : 31.29%

Five Star Movement(M5S) : 14.34%

Others(OTH) : 3.35%

The Left(LS) : 3.15%

-By Party

League(LN / Far-Right – CDX) : 24.59%

Democratic Party(PD / Center-Left – CSX) : 20.42%

Brothers of Italy(FdI / Right-wing – CDX) : 16.07%

Five Star Movement(M5S / Big Tent – M5S) : 14.34%

Foward Italy(FI / Center-Right – CDX) : 7.13%

Action(A / Lean-Left – CSX) : 3.52%

Italy Alive(IV / Lean-Left – CSX) : 3.43%

The Left(LS / Left-wing – LS) : 3.15%

More Europe(+E / Lean-Left – CSX) : 1.99%

Green Europe(EV / Left-wing – CSX) : 1.93%

Others(OTH / Mixed – MIXED) : 3.42%

_FULL DETAILS/RESULTS

: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1s3qfiM5NzZ6MLP-fkF2Nya5olRf3w1T0tNASdcsxOIQ/

_Globe Elections Projection/Prediction/Forecast Dashboard

: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1kr8ZSdkUo0b5gQzPURfHQ0cLqcZpVmSWcnDUOK14mOY/

[South Korea General Election]2021 January Globe Elections UN Projection/Prediction/Forecast

_HEADLINE

According to Globe Elections UN’s January Projection in South Korea, People’s Power Party will gain the majority in the National Assembly and the Democrats will only manage to take around 100 seats. Continuing on, Justice Party and People’s Party are at course to increase many seats. Also, Open Democrats, Progressives, People’s Livelihoods Party will gain seats.

_POLL+ERROR PROJECTION

-Seat Projection

People’s Power Party(PPP / Center-Right) : 152 Seats

(+17 From Dec ’20, +49 From Last Election)

Democratic Party(DPK / Lean-Left) : 108 Seats

(-17 From Dec ’20, -72 From Last Election)

Justice Party(JPK / Center-Left) : 17 Seats

(+0 From Dec ’20, +11 From Last Election)

People’s Party(PP / Lean-Right) : 13 Seats

(+1 From Dec ’20, +10 From Last Election)

Open Democratic Party(ODP / Lean-Left) : 8 Seats

(-1 From Dec ’20, +5 From Last Election)

Progressive Party(JBP / Left-wing) : 1 Seats

(+0 From Dec ’20, +1 From Last Election)

People’s Livelihoods Party(PPL / Center) : 1 Seats

(+0 From Dec ’20, +1 From Last Election)

Others(OTH / Mixed) : 0 Seats

(+0 From Dec ’20, -5 From Last Election)

-Constituency Vote Share Projection

People’s Power Party(PPP / Center-Right) : 47.73%

(+2.10pp From Dec ’20, +6.27pp From Last Election)

Democratic Party(DPK / Lean-Left) : 42.36%

(-2.08pp From Dec ’20, -7.55pp From Last Election)

Justice Party(JPK / Center-Left) : 2.68%

(+0.13pp From Dec ’20, +0.97pp From Last Election)

Others(OTH / Mixed) : 7.23%

(-0.15pp From Dec ’20, +0.31pp From Last Election)

-Proportional Vote Share Projection

People’s Power Party(PPP / Center-Right) : 36.56%

(+1.42pp From Dec ’20, +2.72pp From Last Election)

Democratic Party(DPK / Lean-Left) : 26.57%

(-1.45pp From Dec ’20, -8.62pp From Last Election)

Justice Party(JPK / Center-Left) : 14.18%

(+0.62pp From Dec ’20, +4.51pp From Last Election)

People’s Party(PP / Lean-Right) : 11.56%

(+0.41pp From Dec ’20, +4.76pp From Last Election)

Open Democratic Party(ODP / Lean-Left) : 6.85%

(-0.92pp From Dec ’20, +1.41pp From Last Election)

Others(OTH / Mixed) : 4.28%

(-0.08pp From Dec ’20, -6.63pp From Last Election)

-Presidential Approval

Approval39.49%

(-4.00pp From Dec ’20, -16.71pp From Last Election)

Disapproval60.51%

(+4.00pp From Dec ’20, +16.71pp From Last Election)

_POLL BASE PROJECTION

-Proportional Vote Share Projection

Democratic Party(DPK / Lean-Left) : 41.51%

People’s Power Party(PPP / Center-Right) : 35.12%

People’s Party(PP / Lean-Right) : 7.30%

Justice Party(JPK / Center-Left) : 7.22%

Open Democratic Party(ODP / Lean-Left) : 5.69%

Others(OTH / Mixed) : 3.15%

-Presidential Approval

Approval41.47%

Disapproval58.53% 

_FULL DETAILS/RESULTS

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1QogkZI25kXRXeJY-yaEY1lrO5IlK8USwV2TsIjdYX5M/

_Globe Elections Projection/Prediction/Forecast Dashboard

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1kr8ZSdkUo0b5gQzPURfHQ0cLqcZpVmSWcnDUOK14mOY/

[USA Georgia Senate Election Runoffs]2021 FINAL Globe Elections UN Projection/Prediction/Forecast

_HEADLINE

According to Globe Elections UN’s FINAL 2021 Projection in Georgia of USA, we are projecting that the both of the senate races up for runoff are too close to call as our Poll Base & R1 Base Projection is showing the exact opposite situations.

_POLL BASE PROJECTION

-Regular Senate Runoff Projection

Jon Osoff(DP / Lean-Left) : 51.38%

(+0.78pp From Jan ’21, +6.17pp From Last Election)

David Perdue(GOP / Center-Right) : 48.62%

(-0.78pp From Jan ’21, -4.27pp From Last Election)

-Special Senate Runoff Projection

Raphael Warnock(DP / Center-Left) : 51.40%

(+1.01pp From Jan ’21, +10.36pp From Last Election)

Kelly Loeffler(GOP / Center-Right) : 48.60%

(-1.01pp From Jan ’21, -6.20pp From Last Election)

_R1 BASE PROJECTION

-Regular Senate Runoff Projection

David Perdue(GOP / Center-Right) : 50.91%

(+1.19pp From R1, -1.98pp From Last Election)

Jon Osoff(DP / Lean-Left) : 49.09%

(+1.15pp From R1, +3.88pp From Last Election)

-Special Senate Runoff Projection

Kelly Loeffler(GOP / Center-Right) : 50.06%

(+24.15pp From R1, -4.74pp From Last Election)

Raphael Warnock(DP / Center-Left) : 49.94%

(+17.04pp From R1, +8.90pp From Last Election)

_FULL DETAILS/RESULTS

: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1uyh05MYYkl7MBV1ASP648UwZVpFFVovsTJQ-pXOF1jY/

_Globe Elections Projection/Prediction/Forecast Dashboard

: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1kr8ZSdkUo0b5gQzPURfHQ0cLqcZpVmSWcnDUOK14mOY/

[USA Georgia Senate Election Runoffs]2021 January Globe Elections UN Projection/Prediction/Forecast

_HEADLINE

According to Globe Elections UN’s January 2021 Projection in Georgia of USA, we are projecting that the both of the senate races up for runoff are extremely close. But still we’re putting the democratic challengers – Jon Osoff and Raphael Warnock slightly ahead of the republican incumbents – David Perdue and Kelly Loeffler.

-Regular Senate Runoff Projection

Jon Osoff(DP / Lean-Left) : 50.60%

(+0.97pp From Dec ’20, +5.39pp From Last Election)

David Perdue(GOP / Center-Right) : 49.40%

(-0.97pp From Dec ’20, -3.49pp From Last Election)

-Special Senate Runoff Projection

Raphael Warnock(DP / Center-Left) : 50.39%

(-1.12pp From Dec ’20, +9.35pp From Last Election)

Kelly Loeffler(GOP / Center-Right) : 49.61%

(+1.12pp From Dec ’20, -5.19pp From Last Election)

_FULL DETAILS/RESULTS

: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1p1T99IIRJTmsaNe9Y97JoKpad8wtDz4Oc1iNcNPAlc4/

_Globe Elections Projection/Prediction/Forecast Dashboard

: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1kr8ZSdkUo0b5gQzPURfHQ0cLqcZpVmSWcnDUOK14mOY/

[2021 Virtual Election Night in Georgia]December 2020 – All Calculation Data

-Main Calculation Data (2021)

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Rn8_vmOuTUV60bsrUjnhKamKU2lSOwmrWcH7UNbhMIo/

***Final Vote Totals Based On 2020 Election(Senate) Results, Partial Vote Totals Based On 2020 Election(Presidential) Results, All Vote Shares Based On Globe Elections UN Forecast (December)+2020 Election(Presidential) Situation.

-Past Calculation Data (2020)

https://docs.google.com/document/d/1cg3_fJIq_MU1IZMgOUu9Bv3AtaEpAf51ce__MgTEStM/

***Partial Results Based On 2020 CNN, MSNBC Election Coverage.

[2021 Virtual Election Night in Georgia]November 2020 – All Calculation Data

-Main Calculation Data (2021)

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1uyh05MYYkl7MBV1ASP648UwZVpFFVovsTJQ-pXOF1jY/

***Final Vote Totals Based On 2020 Election(Senate) Results, Partial Vote Totals Based On 2020 Election(Presidential) Results, All Vote Shares Based On Globe Elections UN Forecast (R1)+2020 Election(Presidential) Situation.

-Past Calculation Data (2020)

https://docs.google.com/document/d/1cg3_fJIq_MU1IZMgOUu9Bv3AtaEpAf51ce__MgTEStM/

***Partial Results Based On 2020 CNN, MSNBC Election Coverage.