_HEADLINE

According to Globe Elections UN’s October Projection in the United States of America, we can project that former vice president Joe Biden will be elected as the next president. This also means incumbent president Donald Trump will be defeated.

_NATIONWIDE PROJECTION

-Vote Share Projection

Joe Biden(DP / Lean-Left) : 52.53% (-0.35pp From September, +4.49pp From Last Election)

Donald Trump(GOP / Right-wing Big Tent) : 45.43% (+0.76pp From September, -0.50pp From Last Election)

Others(OTH / Mixed) : 2.04% (-0.41pp From September, -3.99pp From Last Election)

-Presidential Approval Projection <Donald Trump>

Approval : 45.53% (-0.06pp From September)

Disapproval : 54.47% (+0.06pp From September)

_SWING BASE STATEWIDE PROJECTION

-Electoral Vote Projection

Joe Biden(DP / Lean-Left) : 334 E.V.s (-16 From September, +107 From Last Election)

Donald Trump(GOP / Right-wing Big Tent) : 204 E.V.s (+16 From September, -100 From Last Election)

Others(OTH / Mixed) : 0 E.V.s (+0 From September, -7 From Last Election)

-Too Close To Call States

GA – Trump +0.31%p

NC – Biden +1.20%p

AZ – Biden +1.21%p

OH – Trump +3.45%p

FL – Biden +3.73%p

WI – Biden +4.11%p

PA – Biden +4.21%p

TX – Trump +4.35%p

MI – Biden +4.68%p

IA – Trump +5.00%p

-Other Key States

NH – Biden +5.29%p

MN – Biden +6.46%p

NV – Biden +7.42%p

ME – Biden +7.99%p

SC – Trump +9.82%p

CO – Biden +10.04%p

VA – Biden +10.43%p

AK – Trump +11.30%p

MO – Trump +14.49%p

KS – Trump +16.87%p

_POLL+SWING STATEWIDE PROJECTION

-Electoral Vote Projection

Joe Biden(DP / Lean-Left) : 350 E.V.s (-38 From September, +123 From Last Election)

Donald Trump(GOP / Right-wing Big Tent) : 187 E.V.s (+38 From September, -116 From Last Election)

Others(OTH / Mixed) : 0 E.V.s (+0 From September, -7 From Last Election)

-Too Close To Call States

OH – Trump +0.62%p

IA – Trump +1.57%p

GA – Biden +1.67%p

NC – Biden +3.00%p

NV – Biden +3.26%p

AZ – Biden +3.53%p

FL – Biden +3.81%p

TX – Trump +4.89%p

-Other Key States

WI – Biden +5.18%p

SC – Trump +5.32%p

MI – Biden +6.59%p

PA – Biden +6.91%p

KS – Trump +8.76%p

MN – Biden +8.84%p

CO – Biden +10.04%p

NH – Biden +10.09%p

VA – Biden +10.43%p

AK – Trump +11.30%p

ME – Biden +14.17%p

MO – Trump +14.49%p

FULL DETAILS/RESULTS :

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1ag3VShXV6-5dldEBSZTe3jcsObpYRPR8QVNsr0hLw4c/

Globe Elections Projection/Prediction/Forecast Dashboard :

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1kr8ZSdkUo0b5gQzPURfHQ0cLqcZpVmSWcnDUOK14mOY/

-Main Calculation Data (2020)

***Final Vote Totals Based On Our Progress Forecast (As of 09/24) , Partial Vote Totals Based On 2016 Election Results, All Vote Shares Based On Globe Elections UN Forecast (September)+2016 Election Situation.

-Past Calculation Data (2016)

https://docs.google.com/document/d/1cg3_fJIq_MU1IZMgOUu9Bv3AtaEpAf51ce__MgTEStM/

***Partial Results Based On 2016 CNN, MSNBC, PBS Election Coverage.

_Video

_Headline

According to Globe Elections UN’s September Projection in South Korea, we are projecting it is too close to call between DPK and UFP but the Democrats are slightly leading UFP at this stage. In the other hands, the Justice Party, People’s Party, Open Democrats would increase the seat numbers significantly compared to the last election. We are also putting the Progressives(Jinbo Party) up to a single seat.

_Poll+Error Projection

-Seat Projection

Democratic Party(DPK / Lean-Left) : 140 Seats (-7 From August, -40 From Last Election)

United Future Party(UFP / Center-Right) : 125 Seats (+5 From August, +22 From Last Election)

Justice Party(JPK / Center-Left) : 16 Seats (+1 From August +10 From Last Election)

People’s Party(PP / Lean-Right) : 10 Seats (+1 From August, +7 From Last Election)

Open Democratic Party(ODP / Lean-Left) : 9 Seats (+0 From August, +6 From Last Election)

Progressive/Jinbo Party(JBP / Left-wing) : 0 Seats (+0 From August, +0 From Last Election)

Others(OTH / Mixed) : 0 Seats (+0 From August, -5 From Last Election)

-Constituency Vote Share Projection

Democratic Party(DPK / Lean-Left) : 47.22% (-1.00pp From August, -1.69pp From Last Election)

United Future Party(UFP / Center-Right) : 45.44% (+0.45pp From August, +3.53pp From Last Election)

Justice Party(JPK / Center-Left) : 1.93% (+0.29pp From August, +0.22pp From Last Election)

Others(OTH / Mixed) : 5.41% (+0.41pp From August, -1.51pp From Last Election)

-Proportional Vote Share Projection

United Future Party(UFP / Center-Right) : 38.00% (-0.35pp From August, +4.16pp From Last Election)

Democratic Party(DPK / Lean-Left) : 32.33% (-1.32pp From August, -2.86pp From Last Election)

Justice Party(JPK / Center-Left) : 11.15% (+0.61pp From August, +1.48pp From Last Election)

People’s Party(PP / Lean-Right) : 7.55% (+0.87pp From August, +0.75pp From Last Election)

Open Democratic Party(ODP / Lean-Left) : 6.64% (-0.89pp From August, +1.20pp From Last Election)

Others(OTH / Mixed) : 4.33% (+1.08pp From August, -6.58pp From Last Election)

-Presidential Approval

Approval : 48.31% (+1.14pp From August, -7.89pp From Last Election)

Disapproval : 51.69% (-1.14pp From August, +7.89pp From Last Election)

_Poll Only Projection

-Proportional Vote Share Projection

Democratic Party(DPK / Lean-Left) : 47.58%

United Future Party(UFP / Center-Right) : 34.38%

Justice Party(JPK / Center-Left) : 5.35%

Open Democratic Party(ODP / Lean-Left) : 5.20%

People’s Party(PP / Lean-Right) : 4.49%

Others(OTH / Mixed) : 3.00%

-Presidential Approval

Approval : 50.38%

Disapproval : 49.62% 

FULL DETAILS/RESULTS : https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1KQzI6Uh8rQJ5kUTsM8K_FxTJG2iWSydDK2qQiZeqNiY/

List of Nations For Working On Election Projections/Predictions : https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1kr8ZSdkUo0b5gQzPURfHQ0cLqcZpVmSWcnDUOK14mOY/

_National Map

_National Results

_Full Graphics

_Detailed Information

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Ge__8H7tg_KsKthhbL_f7ZuZ8ZjwxaB0zM7W_rJ6wkk/

_National Map

_National Results

_Full Graphics

_Detailed Information

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Yd9_gv9TRhr3S5tAWOQVxnDmIf_gKyXwGFgTwl4P9a4/